客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 星期五 品种观点： 【焦炭 焦煤】1 月 8 日焦炭加权指数强势震荡，收盘价 1766.3，环比上涨 43.3。 1 月 8 日焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 1191.1 元，环比上涨 52.6。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：现货采购价格第四轮下调已经落地。焦化企业利润下滑，但开工整体来看仍然稳定。因高炉利润处于 低位，钢厂虽有复产动作，但铁水产量回升幅度较小，对焦炭的需求偏弱。 焦煤：主产地煤矿陆续复产，国产焦煤产量环比上升；需求，下游焦企按需采购，煤矿出货情况转差，不同 煤种采购价格表现存在差异，但多数煤种价格小幅下跌。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【郑糖】巴西 2025 年 12 月出口同比增加预示短期需求或回暖，受此影响美糖周三震荡走高。受美糖上升提 振郑糖 2605 月合约期价周三高开，但是受短线多头平仓打压期价后期震荡回落收盘小幅上升。夜盘，郑糖 2605 月合约波动不大窄幅震荡小幅收低。巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西 12 月出口糖和糖蜜 291.3 万吨，较 2024 年 12 月的 283.36 万吨增 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 8 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（1 月 7 日）A 股三大指数小幅上涨，沪指日线 14 连阳。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.05%，收 报 4085.77 点；深证成指涨 0.06%，收报 14030.56 点；创业板指涨 0.31%，收报 3329.69 点。沪深两市成交额达 到 28818 亿，较昨日放量 492 亿。 沪深 300 指数 1 月 7 日回调整理。收盘 4776.67，环比下跌 14.03。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】1 月 7 日焦炭加权指数强势，收盘价 1774.5，环比上涨 131.6。 1 月 7 日焦煤加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1165.8 元，环比上涨 87.3。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：库存转向轻微去库。短期煤焦存在两个主要价格驱动，一个是冬储炉料的补库需求预期，尤其是在焦 炭连续四轮提降下，价格预期到相对合理区间，预期对补库力度提振较大。另一个是近期南美宏观局势变化影响 能源市场不确定性出现。 焦煤：临汾低硫主焦煤 1500 元/吨（0），乌海 1/3 焦煤 1110 元/ ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（1 月 6 日）A 股三大指数延续强势表现，沪指日线 13 连阳，创 2015 年 7 月以来的逾十 年新高。截止收盘，沪指涨 1.50%，收报 4083.67 点；深证成指涨 1.40%，收报 14022.55 点；创业板指涨 0.75%， 收报 3319.29 点。沪深两市成交额达到 28326 亿，较昨日放量 2651 亿。 沪深 300 指数 1 月 6 日强势依旧。收盘 4790.69，环比上涨 72.95。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】1 月 6 日焦炭加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1654.7，环比下跌 11.8。 1 月 6 日焦煤加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1096.2 元，环比下跌 0.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：连续四轮提降落地，焦化利润多处于盈亏平衡之间，市场或博弈第五轮降价，焦企亏损面预期扩大， 焦炉生产负荷或环比走低，但现阶段焦炭刚需支撑同步走弱，且钢厂采购延续按需节奏。 焦煤：元旦节后蒙煤通关量快速恢复，而国内矿山开工率如期下降，坑口竞拍成交状况 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（1 月 5 日）A 股喜迎 2026 开门红，沪指 12 连阳，重新站上 4000 点大关。截止收盘， 沪指涨 1.38%，收报 4023.42 点；深证成指涨 2.24%，收报 13828.63 点；创业板指涨 2.85%，收报 3294.55 点。 沪深两市成交额达到 25675 亿，较上一交易日大幅放量 5016 亿。 【郑糖】受美糖走低与现货报价下调等因素影响郑糖 2605 月合约早盘震荡下跌，后受股市大幅走高提振资 金作用期价震荡回升收盘小涨。夜盘，郑糖 2605 月合约波动不大窄幅震荡小幅收高。一项大宗商品研究结果显 示，预计泰国 2025/26 年度甘蔗产量为 9,300 万吨，预估区间介于 7,800–10,800 万吨。（数据来源：文华综合） 【胶】因东南亚产胶旺季进入下半场现货供应压力降逐渐减轻，加之委内瑞拉政局动荡影响东南亚现货报价 震荡走高，受此提振资金作用沪胶周一震荡上行。夜盘，受资金作用沪胶震荡小幅走高。最新数据显示，2025 年前 11 个月，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶 ...

国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（12 月 31 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指 11 连阳收官。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.09%， 收报 3968.84 点；深证成指跌 0.58%，收报 13525.02 点；创业板指跌 1.23%，收报 3203.17 点。沪深两市成交额 20659 亿，较昨日缩量 958 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 31 日回调整理。收盘 4629.94，环比下跌 21.34。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 31 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1691.8，环比下跌 18.5。 12 月 31 日焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1112.5 元，环比上涨 8.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭现货三轮提降落地后，焦企出现小幅亏损，叠加前期环保检查影响，钢联数据显示上周样本焦企 产能利用率下降，焦炭日均产量下滑。需求，钢联数据显示钢厂铁水产量环比继续下降，但周度降幅收窄。 焦煤：临近年末，因完成生产任务减产煤矿数量增加，高频数据显示矿方开工率持续下降，国内煤炭供应环 比 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（12 月 30 日）沪指几乎平收，日线"十连阳"，收报 3965.12 点；深证成指涨 0.49%， 收报 13604.07 点；创业板指涨 0.63%，收报 3242.90 点。沪深两市成交额 21426 亿，较昨日微幅放量 33 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 30 日震荡整理。收盘 4651.28，环比上涨 11.91。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 30 日焦炭加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1710.2，环比上涨 9.7。 12 月 30 日焦煤加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1113.9 元，环比上涨 14.2。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价下跌，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1450 元/吨，较上期价格跌 10。供应， 邢台、天津、唐山、石家庄地区部分钢厂对焦炭开启第四轮提降 50-55 元/吨，于 2026 年 1 月 1 日零点执行，焦 炭第四轮提降正式开启，近期煤价小幅回落，焦企处于微利状态，部分焦企处于亏损状态，整体开工积极性尚可， ...

客服产品系列•日评 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 29 日焦炭加权指数维回调整理，收盘价 1674.6，环比下跌 21.6。 12 月 29 日焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价 1080.3 元，环比下跌 11.6。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：累积提降 3 轮，累积降幅为湿熄焦炭下调 150 元/吨、干熄焦炭下调 165 元/吨，后续提降预期仍存。 本期铁水微升，关注钢厂后续检修。 焦煤：国产煤供应仍处季节性低位。蒙煤方面，甘其毛都口岸通关保持高位，口岸库存继续累积，已超 370 万吨，询价偏低，交投氛围一般。 据海关总署数据显示，截止 10 月底，2025 年中国进口炼焦煤达 9886.90 万吨，同比下降 4.8%。其中 10 月 份我国炼焦煤总进口量达 1059.32 万吨，环比下跌 3.02%，同比上涨 6.39%。出口焦炭方面，根据海关总署公布 的出口焦炭数据，1–10 月中国焦炭出口总量为 621.89 万吨，同比降 14.05%。其中 10 月焦炭出口 72.74 万吨， 环比增 34%，同比增 49.92%。（数据来源：东方财富网） 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 星 ...

焦煤：山西吕梁地区瘦精煤（A8.5、S1.5、G45）上调 20 元至出厂价 1110 元/吨，甘其毛都口岸蒙 5#原煤 985 元/吨，价格跌 11；蒙 3#精煤 1045 元/吨，较上期价格跌 5。供应端，云南省昭通市发生煤矿事故导致当地 煤矿全部临时停产整顿，进一步加剧供应紧张局面，洗煤贸易企业拿货数量谨慎，投机行为较少，现货高价成交 仍显乏力。需求端，焦炭经过三轮降价，钢厂利润恢复不佳，仍有继续提降预期，下游对高价煤的接受程度不高， 部分焦钢企业有控制到货现象。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】周五（12 月 26 日）A 股三大指数集体小幅上涨，沪指日线八连阳。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.10%， 收报 3963.68 点；深证成指涨 0.54%，收报 13603.89 点；创业板指涨 0.14%，收报 3243.88 点。沪深两市成交额 达到 2.16 万亿，较昨日放量 2357 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 26 日震荡整理。收盘 4657.24，环比上涨 14.7。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 ...

客服产品系列•日评 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价下跌，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1460 元/吨，较上期价格跌 20 元/吨。供 应方面，原料焦煤价格继续下跌，给焦企仍留有一定的利润，区域内焦企开工积极性尚可，焦企多维持前期开工 水平，供给端稳中有升。需求端，部分钢厂进入检修期，钢厂高炉日耗被明显压制，钢厂对原料采购持谨慎态度， 钢厂盈利能力一般，多有控制到货现象。 焦煤：山西临汾地区主焦煤（A11、S3.5、G92）上调 7 元至出厂价 1097 元/吨，甘其毛都口岸蒙 5#原煤 996 元/吨，价格涨 31；蒙 3#精煤 1050 元/吨，较上期价格不变。供应端，部分矿井已经完成了年度任务，逐渐有矿 井限产、停产中间贸易环节以对后市持观望态度，个别地区部分煤种出货有所放缓。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【郑糖】受假期因素影响空头平仓推动美糖周三震荡走高。因上一个交易日涨幅较大受技术面影响郑糖 2605 月合约周四震荡休整。夜盘。郑糖 2605 月合约波动不大延续震荡整理走势。农业咨询机构 Safras & Mercado 表示，巴西中南部地区 2026/27 年度糖产量料达到 3,800 万吨，较上一榨季减少 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the A - share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving six consecutive daily gains. Different futures varieties had diverse price movements and market conditions, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international market trends [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 24, the A - share market's three major indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.53% to close at 3940.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.88% to 13486.42 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed 0.77% to 3229.58 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1880.3 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 19.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4634.06, a rise of 13.32 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On December 24, the weighted index of coke showed a narrow - range shock, closing at 1727.2, up 5.6. The mainstream steel mills' purchase prices were generally reduced by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the third round of price cuts was implemented. The coke enterprises' production declined, and the total coke inventory decreased. The blast furnace operation and molten iron output continued to decline, with overall weak driving force [2][4]. - Coking coal: On December 24, the weighted index of coking coal fluctuated within a range, closing at 1119.7 yuan, up 7.6. The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 1320 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 1100 yuan/ton on the futures market. The central government emphasized "dual - carbon" and energy - power construction, which was beneficial for the long - term transformation of the industry. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and the coking coal inventory was increasing. The load of steel and coking enterprises decreased, and the price cut of coke was implemented, leading to a narrowing of coke enterprises' profits and rigid - demand procurement [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by short - covering, the US sugar continued to rise on December 23. Driven by the rise of US sugar and the increase of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose sharply on December 24. Due to a large short - term increase, it had an oscillatory adjustment at night and closed slightly higher. In November 2025, China's refined sugar production was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to November 2025, the production was 12.633 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. In November 2025, the dairy product output was 2.431 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; from January to November, it was 26.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [4]. Rubber - Supported by the firm crude oil price and the increase of Southeast Asian spot prices, Shanghai rubber rose significantly on December 24. Due to a large short - term increase, it had an oscillatory adjustment at night and closed slightly higher. At the end of November 2025, the inventory of the national passenger vehicle industry was 3.79 million, an increase of 380,000 compared with the previous month and 590,000 compared with November 2024. Based on the inventory at the end of November 2025 and the estimated sales in the next three months, the current inventory can support 61 days of sales, compared with 48 days in November 2024, indicating relatively high inventory pressure in November 2025 [4][6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on December 24, due to position adjustment before the Christmas holiday, CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly, but the market was still cautious about the US soybean export sales speed. Brazil's soybean sowing was basically completed, the weather in South America continued to improve, and sporadic harvesting had begun in northern Brazil, with an optimistic production outlook, which restricted the rise of US soybean prices. Domestically, on December 24, the M2605 main contract closed at 2728 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%. Recently, the arrival of imported soybeans in China slowed down, but oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory rose to 1.1371 million tons, an increase of 40,200 tons week - on - week and 554,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and oil mills had little motivation to support prices. It is recommended to focus on extreme weather changes in South America and the arrival volume of soybeans [6]. Live Pigs - On December 24, the LH2603 main contract closed at 11,480 yuan/ton, a 0.57% increase from the previous trading day. Currently, the enthusiasm for live pig slaughter in the breeding end is generally high. As the effective time for pre - holiday slaughter decreases, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises has significantly accelerated. The slaughter intention of individual farmers and secondary fattening groups has also increased, jointly pushing the market's live pig circulation to a high level. The demand side shows signs of marginal improvement. As the peak of curing and stocking in Southwest China approaches, the sales of fresh pork have accelerated significantly, and the slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The phased strengthening of consumption demand has a certain boosting effect on live pig prices and alleviates the downward pressure from the supply side to some extent. It is recommended to focus on the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of cured meat consumption [6]. Palm Oil - On December 24, palm oil continued to rebound but was blocked when rising. The P2605 contract closed with a doji star with an upper shadow, with the highest price of 8548, the lowest price of 8482, and the closing price of 8488, a 0.02% increase from the previous day. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%, with a 11.66% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 2.12% decrease in Sabah, a 0.75% decrease in Sarawak, and a 1.73% decrease in Borneo [6]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose strongly, closing at 96,100 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 95,260 yuan. The highest price during the day reached 96,750 yuan/ton, with large intraday fluctuations and active market trading. The final trading volume was 307,141 lots, and the open interest was 258,277 lots. The copper futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2679 tons to 52,222 tons, and the inventories on LME and COMEX also increased, showing an accumulation trend in global inventory. SMM predicts that China's electrolytic copper production in December will increase by 5.96% month - on - month. The copper concentrate processing fee is at a historical low, and some smelters are in a state of production reduction. Globally, copper mines in many places have frequent accidents, with a 4.7% year - on - year decline in production in major producing areas such as Chile and Indonesia. The copper concentrate processing fee has dropped to a historical low of - 40 US dollars/ton, and smelters at home and abroad have reduced production, which supports the upward movement of copper prices. The demand from traditional home appliances and construction is weak, but the demand from emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI computing centers is remarkable, becoming the core growth engine of copper demand. At the same time, China's power grid investment has stable growth, supporting copper consumption. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues to heat up, the US dollar index is under pressure to decline, reducing the holding cost of non - ferrous metals. The US has included copper in the list of critical minerals, and the expectation of additional import tariffs has led to an imbalance in the global copper inventory distribution, further boosting the copper price [6][7]. Cotton - On the night of December 24, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,175 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil price pushed up the cost of polyester, and the US dollar index weakened. Cotton textile enterprises replenished inventory as needed. The cotton inventory increased by 282 lots compared with the previous trading day [7]. Iron Ore - On December 24, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.26% and a closing price of 779.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment decreased compared with the previous period, the arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand in the off - season was still at a low level, and the molten iron output continued to decline. The short - term iron ore price was in an oscillatory trend [7]. Asphalt - On December 24, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.27% and a closing price of 2996 yuan. The planned production volume of asphalt from local refineries in January decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, the inventory decreased slightly, the demand in the off - season continued to shrink, and the refineries' sales were blocked. The short - term asphalt price showed an oscillatory operation [7]. Logs - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 770 on December 24, with the lowest price of 769.5, the highest price of 777.5, and closed at 776, with a reduction of 112 lots in open interest. The spot - market support should be noted. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. In the future, attention should be paid to the spot - market price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [7][8]. Steel - On December 24, rb2605 closed at 3136 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3285 yuan/ton. The weak demand pattern in the steel market in the off - season is difficult to change, the steel mills' production continues to run at a low level, the supply and demand are generally in a weak - balance pattern, the inventory pressure is not large, and the steel mills' ex - factory prices are mainly stable. At the same time, the prices of raw fuels fluctuate within a narrow range, the coking coal market shows signs of bottoming out and stabilizing, and the iron ore price has a slight decline from a high level. The cost still supports the steel price. In the short term, the steel price may continue to oscillate within a narrow range [8]. Alumina - On December 24, ao2601 closed at 2554 yuan/ton. In the short term, enterprises have little willingness to reduce production. With the inflow of imported goods and the supplement of delivery goods, the short - term supply will remain sufficient, and the oversupply situation will continue, putting pressure on the alumina price. For further production - reduction situations, the market dynamics in 2026 after the execution of long - term contracts need to be noted. On the demand side, the northwest electrolytic aluminum plants had concentrated restocking before, resulting in increased unloading pressure. With high inventory, their willingness to purchase alumina on the spot market has decreased significantly; the supply in the southern region is stable, and only individual aluminum plants purchase at low prices. In the spot market, holders mainly focus on selling, and downstream enterprises maintain the rhythm of purchasing as needed. Most buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has increased, driving the whole - day trading [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On December 24, al2602 closed at 22,330 yuan/ton. In the macro - aspect, non - ferrous metals are still strongly driven by precious metals. Silver has continuously reached new highs, and copper and aluminum continue to be driven upward. The market is optimistic about the Fed's interest rate cut next year, and the expectation of loose liquidity strongly supports precious metals and non - ferrous metals. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side operates stably. The downstream aluminum - water consumption capacity in some areas has weakened, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the production areas has accumulated significantly. The shipment of aluminum ingots has partially recovered, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The demand side shows a weakening trend. As the end of the year approaches, both the purchasing and sales sides have cooled down, and there is a certain degree of production reduction and shutdown in Central China. Large - scale downstream processing factories maintain a certain demand. The demand in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial materials fields is relatively stable, while the consumption in the rod and bar fields shows some pressure [9].