山金期货黑色板块日报-20250415

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade tensions are disturbing the market, causing significant fluctuations in global capital markets and dragging down black - series commodities. The downstream demand has reached its peak in April, with limited room for further increase and a possible decline. There may be policy - based hedging measures due to the negative impact of the trade war on plate consumption and exports [2]. - In the real estate sector, the land auction market in core cities is heating up, indicating a potential stabilization and recovery, but the real - estate market in lower - tier cities is still at the bottoming stage [2][3]. - For iron ore, the global trade tensions are a major concern. Although downstream demand in April may support prices, the supply is at a relatively high level, and the iron - water production increase is expected to be limited. The future price is likely to fluctuate downward [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Situation: Trade tensions and the peak - stage downstream demand affect the market. The production of threaded steel increased last week, the factory inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory continued to decline. The apparent demand increased but at a slower pace. The trade war has a negative impact on plate consumption and exports [2]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price rebounded after breaking through the previous low, with short - term uncertainty [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly [2]. - Data Summary: - Price: The closing price of the threaded - steel main contract was 3126 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from last week. The spot prices of both showed some changes, with the threaded - steel spot price up 0.32% from the previous day and the hot - rolled coil up 0.31% [2]. - Base and Spread: The main - contract base of threaded steel was 44 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil was 18 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from last week. Various spreads also had different changes [2]. - Production and Inventory: The production of threaded steel increased by 1.63% week - on - week, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.91%. The social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.19%, and the factory inventory increased by 1.95% [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Global trade tensions are the focus. Downstream demand in April may support prices, but the supply is at a high level, and the iron - water production increase is limited [3]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price dropped significantly after breaking through the previous low and then stabilized and rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate downward in the future [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly [4]. - Data Summary: - Price: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract was 706 yuan/dry ton, down 7.41% from last week. The prices of various iron - ore powders in ports also had different changes [4]. - Base and Spread: The base and various spreads of iron - ore futures showed different trends, such as the DCE iron - ore futures 9 - 1 spread being 26.5 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan from last week [4]. - Supply - related Data: Australian iron - ore shipments increased slightly, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 4.21%. The port inventory decreased by 0.88% [4]. 3.3. Industry News - From April 7 - 13, 2025, the total iron - ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2617.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 258.8 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2525.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 336.8 million tons [5]. - On April 14, some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai raised the prices of wet - quenched and dry - quenched coke, effective from April 15 [5]. - In March 2025, China imported 9397.4 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, with a total of 28531.2 million tons from January - March. The exports of steel products in March were 1045.6 million tons, with a total of 2742.9 million tons from January - March [6]. - As of the week ending April 11, the total manganese - ore inventory in ports increased by 4 million tons [6]. - In April, the new - order quotation of glass increased by about 0.5 yuan/square meter, but due to the decline in component prices, the negotiation between upstream and downstream enterprises is deadlocked, and the transaction center is expected to decline [6].