Zhao Yin Guo Ji·2025-04-15 05:57Macro Commentary - China's trade surplus reached a record high of over 100 billion USD in March, driven by a significant rebound in exports due to anticipated tariff increases leading to a rush in exports [2] - Export growth is expected to slow from 5.9% in 2024 to 3.3% in 2025, while import growth may slightly rise from 1.1% to 2.2% [2] - The aggressive tariff policies of the Trump administration could reduce China's economic growth by over 0.5 percentage points through various channels [2] - China is likely to strengthen trade and investment ties with non-US regions and shift towards a more consumption-driven growth model, potentially introducing additional fiscal stimulus measures [2] Company Commentary - China Pacific Insurance (2328 HK) is expected to report a net profit growth of 80%-100% YoY for Q1 2025, driven by reduced disaster losses and improved investment returns [6] - The company anticipates a significant improvement in its combined ratio, benefiting from a decrease in natural disaster-related economic losses [6] - The forecast for FY25-27 EPS has been slightly adjusted, with estimates of 1.62, 1.76, and 1.91 CNY respectively, while maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of 15.80 HKD [6] - Yihua Holdings (838 HK) is projected to see a 12% YoY increase in automotive parts revenue for FY25, primarily from contributions by Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile [7] - The company’s Mexican factory is expected to benefit from increased business from OEMs and new tariff policies, with continuous revenue growth and profitability [8] - Yihua's new business segments, including server chassis and robotic assembly, are anticipated to support long-term growth, with revenue from server chassis expected to exceed 400 million HKD this year [8][9] - Baidu (BIDU US) is expected to achieve a core business revenue of 24 billion CNY in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand in cloud services [7] - The company is actively transforming its business model to integrate generative AI into search results, which is expected to enhance user experience and engagement [7] - The target price for Baidu has been adjusted to 146.70 USD, reflecting a PE ratio of 13.9x for 2025E [7] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 21,417, up 2.40% for the day and 25.63% year-to-date [2] - The performance of various sectors in the Hong Kong stock market showed healthcare, materials, and consumer discretionary leading gains, while telecommunications and real estate lagged [4] - The US stock market saw mixed results, with defensive sectors like real estate and utilities performing well, while consumer discretionary and technology sectors underperformed [4]