Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark in the next 6-12 months [2][55]. Core Insights - The social services sector experienced a decline of 2.39% in the last two trading weeks, ranking 10th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification. However, it outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.82 percentage points [2][14]. - Despite short-term market fluctuations due to tariff issues, the long-term outlook remains positive due to policy support and high consumer sentiment in travel and consumption-related industries [2][5]. - The report highlights strong growth in the travel market, with significant year-on-year increases in domestic travel during the Qingming Festival, indicating ongoing robust demand in the sector [2][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was mixed, with three sub-sectors showing gains: tourism retail (+10.29%), tourism and scenic spots (+4.66%), and hotel dining (+1.82%). In contrast, professional services and education saw declines of -5.66% and -8.12%, respectively [18][21]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the social services industry is 33.88 times, which is below the historical average, suggesting potential for growth [22]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth prospects in the travel chain and related industries, including Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others. It also highlights hotel brands benefiting from the recovery in business travel and policies promoting employment [5][46]. 3. Travel Data Tracking - Recent data indicates a recovery in domestic travel, with significant increases in passenger volumes for both domestic and international flights compared to pre-pandemic levels. The report notes that international flight volumes have recovered to 88.17% of 2019 levels [2][39].
社会服务行业双周报：宏观因素扰动板块表现，清明数据体现出行市场景气度仍高-20250415
Bank of China Securities·2025-04-15 06:05