棉花：现阶段供需双弱，后续重点观察消费

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the domestic cotton market is characterized by weak supply and demand. Although the inventory depletion rate has accelerated since March due to a significant decrease in imports, downstream consumption remains weak. The future trend of cotton prices depends on changes in downstream consumption. If consumption weakens significantly, cotton prices may fall; if consumption does not decline much, there is a possibility of a rebound in Zhengzhou cotton prices. Additionally, factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic cotton purchase and storage policies may also lead to a rebound in cotton prices [2][20]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Impact of US Tariff Policy on Cotton Prices - On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration announced a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all trading partners and higher tariffs on some countries with large trade deficits. This led to a significant increase in textile and clothing costs for major cotton - importing and textile - exporting countries such as China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, resulting in a decline in consumption and a sharp drop in domestic and international cotton prices. Subsequently, Sino - US tariffs increased in a spiral. However, on April 10, the US announced a 90 - day suspension of tariffs on more than 75 countries (excluding China), causing US cotton prices to rebound, while short - term domestic and international cotton price trends diverged [4]. Domestic Cotton Consumption - Despite being in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April," domestic cotton textile and clothing industry demand is weaker than in previous years. As of April 3, the mainstream spinning mill operating rate was 75.7%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and the mainstream weaving mill operating rate was 43.7%, a decrease of 18.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Moreover, the spinning mill operating rate has been declining for three consecutive weeks since reaching its peak this year on March 6 [5]. Domestic Cotton Supply and Inventory - In the 2024/25 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly, with the national cotton inspection volume reaching 679 million tons as of April 9, an increase of 107 million tons year - on - year. However, imports decreased significantly, with cumulative imports from August 2024 to February 2025 only at 90 million tons, a decrease of 103 million tons year - on - year. It is expected that imports will remain at a low level in March and April. As a result, domestic supply - demand has shifted from loose to tight - balanced, and inventory depletion has accelerated since February. The national commercial cotton inventory decreased from 524 million tons on January 24 to 442 million tons on April 4 [9][12]. Future Outlook - In the short term, international cotton demand is expected to improve due to the 90 - day tariff suspension in most countries by the US. However, the domestic situation is uncertain. Although there is a possibility of resuming re - export trade, current domestic consumption is weak. With limited new import supply until May, the future trend of cotton prices depends on downstream consumption. If consumption is significantly affected by tariffs, prices may fall; otherwise, there is a chance of a rebound [20].