长江科技联合深度：从2018到2025，中美贸易对抗改变了什么

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report reviews the impact of the US-China trade tensions from 2018 to 2025, highlighting that the resilience of China's technology supply chain has improved significantly compared to seven years ago. The cost of tariff increases is likely to be absorbed through price hikes on products sold in the US, limiting the decline in supply chain fundamentals [3][10] - The report emphasizes that the technology sector has not been significantly affected by the trade tensions, as evidenced by the efficient and low-cost nature of the Chinese supply chain and the proactive measures taken to establish overseas production capacity [7][10] - The report indicates that the domestic technology industry is transitioning from a policy expectation phase to an order fulfillment phase, particularly in the context of the "Xinchuang" (信创) sector [3][10] Summary by Sections Review of Previous Trade Tensions - The report outlines the timeline of the trade conflict, starting from March 23, 2018, when the US officially recognized unfair trade practices by China, leading to a series of tariff increases [6][17] - It notes that the market has gradually desensitized to the trade tensions, with a significant opportunity for bottom-fishing strategies in the following year [6][7] Impact on Overseas Production Capacity - The report states that the trade tensions have prompted companies to backup overseas production, with limited impact on performance. For instance, Apple suppliers have invested $16 billion since 2018 to reduce reliance on mainland China [7][10] - It highlights that the tariff burden has not significantly affected the revenue growth or gross margins of domestic optical module manufacturers, as major North American clients have absorbed the tariff costs [7][10] Enhanced Risk Resilience and Autonomy - The report asserts that the current trade tensions are more severe than previous ones, but the leading optical module manufacturers have already established overseas production capacity, enhancing their risk resilience [8][10] - It mentions that if production countries do not receive tariff exemptions, product prices in the US are likely to increase by approximately 9.5$10-12 billion worth of chips from the US, primarily CPUs and RF components [9][10] - It emphasizes that the trade conflict is driving the rapid development of domestic software and hardware ecosystems, with significant market potential in key foundational software and hardware areas [9][10]