华金期货国债期货市场周报-20250415

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: April 15, 2025 [1] - Research Institution: Huajin Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Last week, treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 28.92 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond yield decreased and remained at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. Group 4: Section Summaries 1. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - Macro and News: In the first quarter of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, with exports increasing by 6.9% and imports decreasing by 6%. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, said that Trump's tariff policies may trigger an economic recession in the US, which is on the verge of an economic recession [4]. - Market Outlook: The central bank net withdrew 28.92 billion yuan last week. The ten - year treasury bond yield decreased and is at a historical low in the long term. The T2506 contract price is above the 40 - day moving average. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is low. In the medium - to - long term, the upside is limited, and short - term dip - buying is recommended [3]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Quotes - Price Trends: Last week, treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The weekly price increases of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were 0.11%, 0.24%, 0.35%, and 0.66% respectively [5]. 3. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - Yield Movements: Last week, interest rates generally decreased, and the yield spread widened [8]. 4. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - Arbitrage Opportunities: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, presenting arbitrage opportunities [11]. 5. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - TF - T Spread: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures widened, and their basis converged [12]. 6. Treasury Bond Term Structure - Term Structure Changes: The treasury bond term structure is steeper than on April 7, and the yield has increased [15].