华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250415

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak performance [3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to undergo short - term range adjustment, with increased volatility, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel [2]. - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to stop production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with some expected to stop after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished product market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, a low - key winter storage this year, and weak price support [3]. Aluminum Ingots - On April 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 724,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from last Thursday and 50,000 tons from last Monday. Low weekend arrivals led to a fast de - stocking pace [3]. - The arrival of domestic aluminum sources decreased significantly last week, and the ex - warehouse performance strengthened after the sharp decline in aluminum prices, so the fast de - stocking pace of domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to continue [3]. - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 56.1% last week. Orders have not recovered significantly, and the volatile aluminum prices have increased downstream enterprises' risk - aversion, resulting in a cold market trading atmosphere [3]. - The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand, and China's tariff increase on US goods may raise the import cost of the aluminum industry chain but also release an incremental signal. Infrastructure and new - energy stimulus policies may boost aluminum consumption [3]. - The current market is worried about the global economic situation, overseas risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and aluminum price fluctuations have intensified [3]. - The macro - level tariff policy is highly uncertain, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in a range, with attention needed on market sentiment and downstream purchasing [4].