摩根士丹利：中国思考-尽管出台刺激政策，但关税冲击下经济增长预期仍被下调

Investment Rating - The report lowers the 2025 GDP growth forecast for China by 30 basis points to 4.2% [1][12] Core Insights - The anticipated additional stimulus of Rmb1-1.5 trillion in the second half of 2025 is expected to partially offset the negative impact of US-China tariffs, which are projected to gradually unwind [1][12] - The report predicts a significant deceleration in quarterly growth from 5.4% YoY in 4Q24 to 3.7% YoY in 4Q25, indicating a 170 basis points slowdown despite policy offsets [12][13] Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The report estimates a 90 basis points growth shock due to tariffs, which will be partially countered by a 60 basis points boost from the additional stimulus [12][13] - The most significant impact on GDP is expected in 2Q, with a projected YoY decline of 0.7 percentage points to 4.4% [12][13] Stimulus Measures - Policymakers are likely to front-load the Rmb2 trillion stimulus package announced at the National People's Congress (NPC) in 2Q, with additional measures expected in the second half of 2025 [14] - Potential measures include modest monetary easing, local construction bond issuance, and targeted support for consumption and infrastructure [14] Tariff Adjustments - The report assumes that the US will lower the weighted average tariff hike on China to 34% by year-end, with significant cuts expected in the next 1-2 months [12][13] - The effective tariff hike is projected to decrease from current levels, which will help mitigate supply shocks and facilitate trade negotiations [3][12] Currency Outlook - The year-end USDCNY target is maintained at 7.5, with a front-loaded depreciation expected to 7.4 by the end of 2Q [15] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is anticipated to manage RMB depreciation carefully to avoid disorderly capital outflows [15]