Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-15 08:48Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The V2505 contract of PVC showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 4931 yuan/ton. The supply side saw some PVC plants undergoing maintenance, leading to a 3.35% decrease in capacity utilization to 76.67%. The demand side had PVC pipe and profile开工率 at low levels compared to the same period. As of April 10, PVC social inventory continued to decline, with a 3.16% decrease to 75.32 million tons. In April, domestic PVC plants will have concentrated maintenance, and capacity utilization is expected to continue to decline. The downstream PVC flooring products enterprises are mostly shut down, while pipe and profile enterprises are less affected. In terms of cost, the price of calcium carbide is expected to decline slightly, and the price of ethylene has room to fall. The V2505 contract should pay attention to the support around 4800 yuan/ton below and the resistance around 5000 yuan/ton above [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4931 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 513,586 lots, an increase of 61,759 lots. The open interest was 448,138 lots, a decrease of 82,219 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -61,446 lots, an increase of 8,300 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5090 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4890.38 yuan/ton, an increase of 35.38 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4940 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 805 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 111 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region was 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northern China region, it was 2873.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.33 yuan/ton; in the northwestern China region, it was 2647 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 541 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 226 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 221 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.67%, a decrease of 3.35%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.22%, a decrease of 3.18%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 69.98%, a decrease of 3.79%. The total social inventory of PVC was 45.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.33 million tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 40.52 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons. The total social inventory in the South China region was 4.54 million tons, a decrease of 0.32 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.8, an increase of 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 66.14 million square meters, a decrease of 672.7884 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.05972 billion square meters, a decrease of 1.2727536 billion square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 611.071 billion yuan, a decrease of 496.9943 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 16.89%, a decrease of 0.1. The 40 - day historical volatility of PVC was 13.9%, a decrease of 0.11. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 24.62%, an increase of 2.24 [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On April 15, the spot - cash warehouse - pickup price of PVC SG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. From April 5 to April 11, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.67%, a decrease of 3.35% compared to the previous period. As of April 10, the social inventory of PVC (41 samples) decreased by 3.16% to 75.32 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.55% [3].