Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-15 08:56Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable. However, on the supply side, more than half of the enterprises in the industry are carrying out equipment maintenance, especially in Xinjiang and Mongolia, leading to a significant decline in supply. On the demand side, the downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment among crystal - pulling enterprises and low procurement willingness. The downstream enterprises expect the long - term silicon material price to fall and plan to replenish inventory after the price stabilizes. The inventory pressure in the polysilicon industry remains high, mainly concentrated in manufacturers, and the inventory digestion speed has slowed down. It is recommended to take a short - position strategy for the polysilicon main contract on an intraday basis, and try a short - position order at around 41,800 yuan/ton with a stop - loss price of 42,300 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of polysilicon is 40,485 yuan/ton, down 1,065 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 49,439 lots, up 9,299 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 815 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 31,315 yuan/ton, down 925 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 42,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.93 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars/kg. The basis of polysilicon is 450 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The main contract closing price of industrial silicon is 9,170 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton; the export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the spot price of industrial silicon is 10,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 289,350 tons, down 16,450 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 612,000 tons, up 4,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 3,128 tons, up 812 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.27 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6.7001 million kilowatts, down 113,700 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 71,334,590 pieces, down 24,503,790 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 11,968,380 pieces, up 4,161,000 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.26 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 23.53, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Macro - level: In the first quarter, the cumulative increase in social financing was 15.18 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan. At the end of March, the M2 balance was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Upgrading of a New Generation of Coal - fired Power (2025 - 2027)" to promote the transformation and upgrading of coal - fired power [2].