冠通研究：基本面驱动有限，短期低位震荡

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The fundamental drivers for coking coal are limited, and it is expected to experience short - term low - level fluctuations. The supply side still faces significant pressure, while the current low - valuation of the futures market restricts downward movement but lacks upward drivers [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The coking coal main contract 2509 opened higher and closed lower today, with the closing price center continuing to rise. Domestic mine production is increasing, and imported coal resources are abundant. Although the downstream steel and coking enterprises'开工 has slightly increased, overseas resource prices are under pressure, and the supply side pressure is large. Considering the macro - risks and the current situation of the futures market, short - term coking coal should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [1]. Futures Market - The coking coal main contract JM2509 opened higher and then weakened, closing at 985.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 0.81%. The trading volume was 191,200 lots, and the open interest was 579,900 lots, an increase of 25,172 lots [3]. - For the coking coal 2505 contract, the top 20 long positions were 157,132 lots, an increase of 9,762 lots, and the top 20 short positions were 184,115 lots, an increase of 16,329 lots [5]. Spot Market - The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was quoted at 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Meng 5 main coking raw coal was 830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Basis - The futures closing price of the main contract was 908 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 232 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Supply - From April 4th to April 10th, the operating rate of 523 domestic sample coking coal mines was 87.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.84 percentage points. The daily average output of clean coking coal was 782,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,800 tons. On April 5th, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 181,035 tons, a daily increase of 63,990 tons [7]. Demand - From April 4th to April 10th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 648,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 474,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2,402,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,900 tons [10].