光大期货黑色商品日报-20250415

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to experience low - level fluctuations. In March 2025, China's steel exports remained high, and the growth of social financing and credit accelerated, which boosted market sentiment [1]. - The iron ore market is predicted to show a repeated oscillation trend. The supply has minor changes, the demand growth space is limited, and prices are greatly affected by overseas macro - news [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to be in a state of oscillatory consolidation. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the demand for coking coal and coke is stable [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are likely to operate with low - level oscillations. The supply of both is decreasing, and the focus is on steel procurement tenders [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3126 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 40,500 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume rebounded. In March 2025, China exported 10.456 million tons of steel, and from January to March, the cumulative export was 27.429 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [1]. - Iron Ore: The price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 708 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and an increase of 27,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices showed mixed trends. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.348 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 418,000 tons [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2505 contract was 905.5 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 1.46% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 23,382 lots in positions. The price of 1/3 coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi increased by 30 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was stable [1]. - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2505 contract was 1548 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 1.71% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 997 lots in positions. The spot price of coke at ports increased. The first - round price increase of coke was accepted by mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened with oscillations. The main contract was reported at 5946 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07%, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 22,954 lots. The production reduction in the main production areas increased, and the price of manganese ore decreased [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened with oscillations. The main contract was reported at 5860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 2367 lots. The production in the main production areas continued to decrease, and the inventory increased rapidly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 31.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil was 55.0, up 5.0 [4]. - Basis: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 44.0, up 15.0; the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 104.4, up 4.2 [4]. - Spot Prices: The spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3170.0, up 10.0; the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 764.0, up 2.0 [4]. - Profits and Spreads: The rebar's disk profit was 144.1, down 14.7; the long - process profit was 11.8, up 6.4; the short - process profit was - 78.9, down 12.1. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 116.0, up 5.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are price trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][11][14]. - Main Contract Basis: There are basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][20][22]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are spread trend charts of different contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][27][30][32][33][34][36]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: There are spread trend charts of main contracts such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [38][39][40][42]. - Rebar Profits: There are profit trend charts of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [43][45][47]. 3.4 Black Research Team Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures. He has rich experience and many honors in the steel industry [49]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, with many honors in the field of power coal research [49]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [50].