800+发债区县2024经济财政债务大盘点

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the economic, fiscal, and debt situations of over 800 bond - issuing districts and counties in 2024, highlighting differences between non - key and key debt - resolution provinces, and recommends focusing on investment opportunities in districts and counties with improved fundamentals [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - key Province Districts' GDP Growth Rate Higher than Key Debt - resolution Province Districts - In 2024, 210 districts and counties had a GDP scale over 100 billion yuan, mainly in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Shandong, with a median growth rate of 5.6%, higher than the national level of 5.0% [10]. - Non - key provinces had better GDP growth, with a median growth rate of 5.9% for bond - issuing districts, compared to 5.4% in key debt - resolution provinces. About half of non - key province districts had a GDP growth rate above 6.0%, while less than 30% of key province districts did [13]. - Districts and counties with a GDP growth rate of 6% or more in 2024 were mainly in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Anhui, Sichuan, and Hubei [13]. 3.2 Most Districts and Counties' General Public Budget Revenue Increased, but Growth Rate Slowed - As of March 31, 2025, 788 bond - issuing districts and counties had disclosed general public budget revenue data, with 109 having revenues of 10 billion yuan or more, mainly in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Shandong [18]. - 606 out of 788 districts and counties had positive general public budget revenue growth in 2024, accounting for nearly 80%, but the growth rate generally declined compared to 2023. The proportion of districts and counties with a growth rate of 5% or more was 33.7% in 2024, a decrease of 37.5 percentage points from 2023 [22]. - Growth in general public budget revenue in most districts and counties was more reliant on non - tax revenue. Nearly 70% of 662 districts and counties with available data had non - tax revenue growth of over 5%, while only 40% achieved tax revenue growth [27]. 3.3 Over 90% of Districts and Counties' Government Debt Ratios Increased, and Over 40% of Urban Investment Debt Ratios Decreased - After the "6 + 4" trillion yuan local government bond policy in November 2024, most districts and counties' local government debt balances increased by over 10%, leading to over 90% of districts and counties' government debt ratios rising [4]. - There were more districts and counties with high urban investment debt ratios in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Sichuan. Among 117 districts and counties with urban investment debt ratios over 1000%, these three provinces accounted for a large proportion [31]. - Over 40% of districts and counties saw a decline in urban investment debt ratios, mainly in Hubei, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Chongqing [4]. 3.4 Focus on Investment Opportunities in Districts and Counties with Improved Fundamentals - As of April 10, 2025, about 6.5 trillion yuan of urban investment bonds at the district and county level were mainly distributed in districts and counties with a general public budget revenue of over 3 billion yuan, accounting for about 90% [5]. - The stronger the fiscal strength of a district or county, the lower the average valuation of urban investment bonds. Districts and counties with a general public budget revenue of over 20 billion yuan had an average valuation of only 2.10%, while those with a revenue of 3 - 5 billion yuan had an average valuation of 2.62% [38]. - 42 districts and counties that met the criteria of a 2024 GDP growth rate of 5% or more, a general public budget revenue growth rate of over 8%, and a decline in urban investment or government debt ratios were selected as having significantly improved fundamentals. Some of their urban investment bonds had certain cost - effectiveness [5].