Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The "tariff" negative sentiment in the steel market has been partially released, but uncertainties still remain. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. The supply and demand of rebar both increase, with the production increase slightly faster than the demand increase, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The demand for hot-rolled coils has decreased significantly, and the overall inventory reduction amplitude has further narrowed. There is pressure on export orders in the second quarter. Currently, the inventory contradiction of steel products is limited. After the steel price hit a new annual low, it has stabilized as the macro negative sentiment eases, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Iron ore shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing in the short term, and the price tends to fluctuate. The supply of coking coal and coke is loose, and the two are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review After the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, the tariff impacted the commodity market, and the risk-aversion sentiment pushed up. The black series as a whole declined. The industry continued to reduce inventory. The increase in rebar production was greater than the increase in demand, and the inventory reduction rate slowed down slightly. The demand for hot-rolled coils declined significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Under the influence of macro factors, both the futures and spot prices declined, and the basis widened [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Production: The national weekly rebar production was 2323700 tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.63% and a year-on-year increase of 6.66%), and the weekly hot-rolled coil production was 3133000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.50%). The blast furnace production of rebar increased slightly, and the electric furnace production increased more significantly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.28% (a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 7.03%), and the electric furnace operating rate was 73.43% (a month-on-month decrease of 0.94% and a year-on-year increase of 9.86%) [14][17][20]. - Profit: The rebar profit was +108 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 8.48% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.47%), and the hot-rolled coil profit was +67 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 27.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 72.31%) [25]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of rebar was 2526800 tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.20% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.26%), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 3153300 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.75%) [30]. - Inventory: The rebar mill inventory was 2146600 tons (a month-on-month increase of 3.64% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%), the social inventory was 5631000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 4.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.24%), and the total inventory was 7777600 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 2.54% and a year-on-year decrease of 27.89%). The hot-rolled coil mill inventory was 862300 tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.15% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%), the social inventory was 2980800 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.64%), and the total inventory was 3843100 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.53%) [35][40]. - Downstream: In the real estate sector, the weekly data showed that the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 9.74% month-on-month and 20.47% year-on-year, and the transaction land area in 100 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 52.60% month-on-month after the festival and 31.20% year-on-year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales reached 3.006 million and 2.915 million vehicles respectively, with month-on-month increases of 42.9% and 37% and year-on-year increases of 11.9% and 8.2% respectively. The cumulative automobile production and sales reached 7.561 million and 7.47 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 14.5% and 11.2% respectively [43][46]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the arrival volume at ports increased significantly. The iron ore price index was 97.74 (a month-on-month decrease of 4.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.02%). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 24.348 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.75% and a year-on-year increase of 26.85%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.255 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 15.39% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.11%) [54]. - Demand: The daily pig iron production continued to increase, and the port clearance volume increased slightly. The daily pig iron production was 2.4022 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 14900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 154700 tons), the port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1805 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 0.15% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.37%), and the inventory-to-sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.46 days (a month-on-month decrease of 1.84% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.88%) [58]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel enterprise inventory decreased. The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 143.4102 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.01%), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.7713 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.60%), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.84 days (a month-on-month decrease of 2.26% and a year-on-year increase of 4.93%) [64]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The operating rate of domestic mines continued to increase, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 87.16% (a month-on-month increase of 0.97% and a year-on-year increase of 2.29%), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.7% (a month-on-month increase of 3.18% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.32%), and the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 181000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 52.39% and a year-on-year increase of 116%) [70]. - Demand: The daily transaction rate of coking coal decreased. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 56.22% (a week-on-week decrease of 38.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.56%), and the weekly transaction rate was 92.37% (a week-on-week increase of 11.36% and a year-on-year increase of 34.45%) [73]. - Coking Enterprises: The profit improved month-on-month, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was -49 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 4 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 106 yuan/ton), the capacity utilization rate was 72.96% (a month-on-month increase of 0.39% and a year-on-year increase of 14.23%), and the coke capacity utilization rate of steel mills was 87.44% [79]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The port inventory increased month-on-month, and the inventory accumulation of coking plants slowed down. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 8.1453 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.31% and a year-on-year increase of 26.61%), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 7.7947 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.26% and a year-on-year increase of 6.32%), and the coking coal port inventory was 3.4892 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 0.39% and a year-on-year increase of 71.19%) [85]. - Coke Inventory: The coking plants slightly reduced inventory, and the port inventory continued to increase. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 659000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.71% and a year-on-year increase of 4.73%), the coke inventory of steel mills was 6.6799 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.73% and a year-on-year increase of 11.55%), and the coke port inventory was 2.3309 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 7.35% and a year-on-year increase of 12.44%) [91]. - Spot Price: The price of coking coal increased slightly, and the first round of price increase for coke has not been implemented yet. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1320 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 30 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 430 yuan/ton), and the ex-factory price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1150 yuan/ton (unchanged month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 350 yuan/ton) [97]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has shrunk, and the spread between the 05 and 10 contracts of rebar has also shrunk. - The spread between the 05 and 09 contracts of iron ore has slightly widened, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar has shrunk [99][104].
周报：“关税”利空略有缓解，钢价低位震荡-20250415
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-04-15 11:50