Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-15 12:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating an expectation for performance improvement due to supply contraction leading to a rebound in coal prices and company performance [1]. Core Insights - The domestic raw coal production increased by 7.7% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025, totaling 765 million tons, while coal imports saw a decline of 0.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The average price of thermal coal and coking coal at ports dropped significantly in Q1 2025, with thermal coal prices falling approximately 19.92% year-on-year and coking coal prices down about 40.21% year-on-year [2][16]. - Key companies in the coal sector are expected to report varying performance in their Q1 2025 earnings, with China Shenhua and Electric Power Investment Energy showing better-than-expected results, while Shaanxi Black Cat is anticipated to underperform [2][18]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic raw coal production increased by 600.6 million tons, a 7.7% rise compared to the same period in 2024, with significant contributions from Shanxi (20.3% increase) and Inner Mongolia (2.0% increase) [3][8]. - Coal imports for the first three months of 2025 totaled 11.5 million tons, reflecting a 0.9% decrease year-on-year, with March marking the first month of negative growth since January 2023 [11][13]. Price Trends - The average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports was approximately 723 RMB/ton in Q1 2025, down from 903 RMB/ton in Q1 2024, marking a decline of 19.92% [2][16]. - Coking coal prices also saw a significant drop, with the average price for Shanxi's main coking coal at 1444 RMB/ton in Q1 2025, down 40.21% from 2416 RMB/ton in Q1 2024 [2][17]. Company Performance Forecasts - China Shenhua is expected to report an EPS of 0.70, a year-on-year decrease of 12.94%, while Electric Power Investment Energy is projected to have an EPS of 0.84, down 3.6% year-on-year [2][18]. - Companies like Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal are expected to report earnings that are in line with expectations, while Shaanxi Black Cat is forecasted to underperform with an EPS of -0.27, a significant drop of 169.28% year-on-year [2][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from increased market coal and stable operations with high dividends, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, while also considering undervalued companies like Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma [2].