策略专题研究：两个太阳（续）：齿轮开始转动

Current Situation - The current US tariff policy has a significant impact on China's direct exports to the US, with an estimated shock to China's total value added growth of approximately 1.47%, which is about four times the impact of the tariffs in 2018 [1][15][12] - The sectors most affected by the tariffs include electrical and optical equipment, wood and wood products, basic metals and metal products, mining, machinery, leather products, and footwear [1][15][19] Scenario One: Intensified Division and Focus on US-China Trade - If the US imposes additional tariffs globally, both direct and indirect exports from China to the US will be affected, leading to an estimated increase in tariff shock intensity to 4.5 times that of 2018, potentially dragging down China's total value added growth by 1.72% [2][28][30] - The sectors that will be further impacted include transportation equipment, textiles, wood and wood products, leather products and footwear, basic metals and metal products, and electrical and optical equipment [2][30][31] Scenario Two: China Leading a New Trade Circle - If other countries choose to retaliate against the US, China could see an increase in its share in these countries, potentially leading to a scenario where India, Japan, and South Korea join China's trade circle, while Mexico aligns with the US [3][34] - In this scenario, China's total value added growth may only be dragged down by 0.09%, indicating minimal impact from US tariffs [3] Scenario Three: The Worst-Case Scenario - If other countries impose tariffs on China as a negotiation tactic with the US, the trade circle for China may shrink significantly, leaving only Russia as a partner, while other countries align with the US [4] - This scenario would lead to a negative impact on China's total value added growth across most sectors, with significant losses in leather products and footwear, machinery, wood and wood products, textiles, and electrical and optical equipment [4] Scenario Four: Acceptance, Negotiation, and Retaliation - Countries are expressing varied responses to the US tariffs, with China and the EU implementing countermeasures, while Southeast Asia and India show a tendency to negotiate [5] - In this scenario, China's total value added growth may be dragged down by 1.43%, similar to the current situation, but sectors like leather products and footwear, textiles, rubber and plastics, and machinery leasing may benefit [5] Path to Resolution: Building Demand and New Cycles - The report emphasizes the importance of constructing a new demand system as the global order led by the US is being restructured, with a focus on China's domestic demand as a key area of recommendation [6] - High-quality manufacturing export companies, particularly in machinery, transportation equipment, electrical equipment, and textiles, are highlighted as significant beneficiaries in the new trade order [6]