有色金属周度观点-20250415

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The copper market is in a rebound phase, but is subject to significant systemic event shocks. Aluminum shows relatively optimistic fundamentals but faces uncertainty due to trade wars. Zinc is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be short - sold on rebounds in the medium - term. Lead prices are volatile due to tariff policies. Nickel is at the end of a rebound. Tin is in a rebound with supply - side resistance. Lithium carbonate is in a downward channel. Industrial silicon has a downward price trend. Polysilicon prices are under pressure with demand changes and cost shifts. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Sentiment: Last week, tariff games pushed LME copper down to $8,105, causing long - position exits. US inflation indicators eased, but inflation expectations remained high, and consumer confidence was weak [2]. - Domestic Situation: The import TC of upstream concentrates dropped to - $30/tonne dry. Domestic copper smelter production is stable, and consumption has short - term buying interest but long - term uncertainty. SMM social inventory decreased to 250,500 tons, 148,500 tons lower than last year [2]. - Overseas Situation: Major investment banks lowered their copper price forecasts to $8,000 - $8,300, and the balance sheet turned to surplus. Peru, Chile, and Zambia are expected to increase copper output this year [2]. - Price Trend: The copper market has resistance support in supply - demand but is in a rebound. LME copper's technical resistance is expected at $9,300 - $9,500, and SHFE copper is around 76,500 - 77,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: Last week, the operating capacity decreased by 400,000 tons to 8.6 million tons. The price is expected to fluctuate between 2,700 - 2,950 yuan this week, and futures can be short - sold on rebounds [2]. - Supply: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable at 4.39 million tons. The output in Q1 was 1.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.6% [2]. - Demand: The domestic downstream processing industry's operating rate decreased to 62.2%. Aluminum cable demand is strong, but other sectors are weak [2]. - Inventory and Spot: Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased to 724,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory to 226,000 tons. Spot premiums decreased. SHFE aluminum is expected to oscillate between 19,000 - 20,000 yuan this week [2]. Zinc - Market and Supply: The import zinc concentrate price guidance for Q2 is $70 - 90/tonne dry. The inventory of imported zinc concentrates is at a high of 320,400 tons. The zinc ingot import window opened, and smelters' production enthusiasm is high. The short - term support is at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the medium - term price may decline [2]. - Consumption and Inventory: Due to tariff policies, demand weakened after the price rebound. The social inventory increased to 105,600 tons. Consumption is under pressure as the peak season nears the end. SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan in the short - term and be short - sold on rebounds in the medium - term [2]. Lead - Market and Supply: The lead price fluctuated due to tariff policies and a weak dollar, with the import window opening. LME lead inventory increased, and the cost side has strong support. The supply pressure is partially relieved by some smelter production cuts [2]. - Consumption: It is the battery consumption off - season, and the consumption side has weak support for high - price lead. SHFE lead is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,300 yuan [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market and Demand: The nickel price declined last week, and stainless steel prices dropped 5.7%. The US tariff policy impacts demand, especially external demand [2]. - Supply and Inventory: Nickel inventory decreased, and stainless steel inventory increased. SHFE nickel is at the end of a rebound, and short - sellers should look for new entry opportunities [2]. Tin - Market and Supply: The tin price was affected by tariff policies and supply - side events. The supply is expected to be tight in Q2, but the pricing focus has shifted to demand [2]. - Demand: The US tariff policy on semiconductors increases demand uncertainty. The inventory is high. SHFE tin is in a rebound, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan, and short - selling is recommended [2]. Lithium Carbonate - Market and Supply: The futures price rebounded slightly after breaking through support. The supply is high, and downstream demand is limited. The market inventory increased to 131,000 tons. The price is in a downward channel [2]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Supply: The price oscillated around 9,500 yuan/ton last week. The Xinjiang production cut was less than expected, and the downstream demand for polysilicon is stable, while organic silicon demand is expected to shrink. The price has further downward space [2]. Polysilicon - Price and Supply: The futures price dropped 4.16% last week. The production in April is about 96,000 - 105,000 tons, and the inventory is relatively high. The cost center may shift downwards [2]. - Demand: The photovoltaic demand is expected to decline in the second half of the year. The demand in April slightly exceeds production, and the inventory is expected to decrease slightly. Attention should be paid to the support at 41,500 yuan/ton [2]. 4. Recommended Strategy - Short sell ZN2506. With the implementation of tariffs, the end of "rush - to - export" orders, and the over - consumption in Q1, the demand is expected to be weak. The supply increase in Q2 will lead to a downward pressure on zinc prices, and zinc is the main short - selling target [2].