黑色金属日报-20250415

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is mainly in short-term oscillation, and attention should be paid to the intensity of peak-season demand and changes in domestic and foreign macro policies [1] - The short-term trend of iron ore is expected to be oscillatory, and future attention should be paid to the introduction and implementation of domestic policies [2] - The coke price is likely to be weak in the short term [3] - The coking coal price is mainly in a weak oscillation [5] - For silicomanganese, it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] - For ferrosilicon, it is also recommended to short on rebounds [7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - Thread steel demand has a slight month-on-month increase but remains weak year-on-year, with low inventory; hot-rolled coil supply and demand have significantly declined, and the inventory reduction trend has slowed down; the overall blast furnace continues the resumption of production, and pig iron output continues to rise [1] - Domestic demand improvement still takes time, and steel exports in March remained high, but the manufacturing and steel exports face impacts after the US tariff increase; the impact of tariff policies on the market is decreasing, and the market is gradually stabilizing, mainly in short-term oscillation [1] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment is in normal fluctuation, and the shipment in April is stronger than the same period last year; the domestic arrival volume has rebounded significantly and is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [2] - The national port inventory of iron ore has decreased significantly, and it may stabilize with the rebound of arrival volume; the demand for finished products is at the top of the stage, and steel mills have slight profits, with a slight resumption of pig iron production [2] - Overseas trade frictions show signs of phased mitigation, and market panic has eased, but there is a risk of recurrence in the future; the short-term iron ore trend is expected to be oscillatory [2] Coke - The first round of price increase has been implemented, but the subsequent momentum for further price increases is poor; the coke price mainly follows the steel trend due to tariff policies [3] - Pig iron daily output has a slight increase, coking profit has significantly shrunk, but daily output continues to rise; the overall coke inventory reduction is not smooth and remains at a high level, and the trading procurement enthusiasm has declined [3] - The coke futures premium has been compressed, the price of coal for blast furnace has increased, and there are many macro-variable factors; the price is likely to be weak in the short term [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price mainly follows the steel trend due to tariff policies; coking coal mines have resumed production, and the output has increased this week, with good spot auction trading volume and a slight increase in trading price [5] - The total coking coal inventory continues to rise, the inventory pressure at the production end continues to decline, and downstream coking plants and steel mills only have rigid demand procurement; the import of Mongolian coal has a weak oscillatory futures price, and high-price resources at the port have weak trading [5] - The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, the downstream pig iron output remains at a high level; the coking coal price is mainly in a weak oscillation, affected by inventory levels and delivery expectations [5] Silicomanganese - A large steel mill in the north increased its silicon manganese procurement volume in April; the silicon manganese price mainly follows the steel trend due to tariff policies [6] - The absolute inventory level at Tianjin Port has increased this week, the spot quotation and trading price of manganese ore have continued to decline, and the forward manganese ore price has also decreased [6] - Pig iron output has a slight increase, silicon manganese supply has slightly decreased from a high level, and the overall inventory has significantly increased, suppressing the price; it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Ferrosilicon - A large steel mill in the north decreased its ferrosilicon procurement volume in April; the ferrosilicon price mainly follows the steel trend due to tariff policies [7] - Pig iron output has a slight increase; export demand generally maintains a month-on-month downward trend, and the marginal impact is small; the output of magnesium metal has decreased, and the secondary demand is average, with overall marginal decline in demand [7] - Ferrosilicon supply has decreased, the market trading level is average, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has increased; its fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [7]