长江消费关税影响系列报告：纺服系列1：观往知来，关税如何影响纺织制造板块？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [11]. Core Insights - The recent tariff increases by the Trump administration, expected to reach 54% on Chinese imports, will have a short-term negative impact on textile companies' orders and profits, particularly those with high export ratios to the U.S. and thin margins. However, long-term supply chain adjustments are anticipated to favor leading companies with strong competitive advantages [4][8]. - The report suggests that Q1 retail performance for apparel brands was stable, and favorable policies may boost domestic demand, recommending active investment in Q2 [9][10]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact History - Historical tariff increases have led to limited impacts on manufacturing capacity as many companies have already relocated production overseas. The third round of tariffs affected approximately $3.5 billion in goods, while the fourth round impacted$30.7 billion, primarily in apparel and home textiles [7][22]. - The U.S. has borne the brunt of tariff costs, with domestic production not sufficiently replacing imports, leading to cost pass-through to consumers [7][22]. Current Tariff Effects - The latest tariff increases are expected to suppress profits and orders in the short term, with the combined tariff rates on Chinese goods reaching between 61.5% and 79% [8][9]. - Long-term, the supply chain is expected to restructure, benefiting leading firms as manufacturers shift production to lower-tariff regions like Indonesia and India [8][9]. Sector Strategy - The report is optimistic about brand performance in Q2, suggesting that the current tariff situation may enhance domestic demand and consumer preference for local brands. It recommends identifying undervalued stocks with strong growth potential [9][10]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to face short-term challenges due to unexpected tariff increases, but long-term prospects remain positive for companies with robust supply chains and profit margins [9][10].