Ping An Securities·2025-04-15 14:44Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [1]. Core Insights - The commercialization of nuclear medicine is accelerating, with significant growth in diagnostic nuclear drugs and the potential for domestic nuclear drugs to reach a commercialization inflection point [3][17]. - The report highlights the successful commercialization of Pluvicto and Lutathera, which are expected to generate substantial revenues, with Pluvicto projected to exceed $5 billion in peak sales [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the similarities between Radioligand Therapy (RDC) and Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADC), suggesting that RDC could replicate the success of ADC in the market [3][22]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Overseas Nuclear Drug Rapid Growth, Domestic Commercialization Period - Overseas nuclear drugs are experiencing rapid commercialization, with Pluvicto achieving $1.392 billion in revenue in 2024, a 42% increase, and Lutathera generating $724 million, a 20% increase [3][12]. - The combined revenue from these two drugs for Novartis reached $2.116 billion, indicating the ongoing value realization of nuclear drugs [3][12]. - The report notes that the domestic nuclear drug market is set to expand significantly, with five new nuclear drugs approved since 2020, including Yttrium-90 microspheres from Yuan Da Pharmaceutical, which is expected to generate nearly HKD 500 million in revenue in 2024, a growth rate exceeding 140% [3][20]. Part 2: RDC Expected to Replicate ADC Success Path - RDC shares structural and mechanistic similarities with ADC, consisting of a targeting ligand, a linker, and a radioactive nuclide [3][22]. - The report outlines that both RDC and ADC have followed similar validation timelines, with ADC gaining market traction after the success of Enhertu, while RDC is now gaining attention following the success of Pluvicto [3][22]. - The market for new nuclear drugs is projected to reach approximately $4-5 billion in 2024, comparable to the ADC market size around 2021 [3][22]. Part 3: Domestic Nuclear Drug Pipeline Overview - The report details the current pipeline of domestic nuclear drugs, with three products in the NDA stage, including Novartis's PSMA diagnostic and therapeutic drugs [3][49]. - The leading targets in domestic research remain PSMA, FAP, and SSTR, with companies like Yuan Da Pharmaceutical and Xiantong Pharmaceutical leading in clinical project numbers [3][53]. - The anticipated approval of Novartis's two PSMA-targeted products in Q2 2025 is expected to further stimulate the domestic nuclear medicine market [3][20].