宏观深度研究：房地产市场止跌回稳新特征

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate market, suggesting a recovery trend supported by policy measures and demand release [5][20]. Core Insights - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization and recovery in Q1 2025, driven by strong policy support and the release of housing demand [5][20]. - The secondary housing market has become the main driver of recovery, with significant increases in transaction volumes compared to new homes [6][21]. - New homes in first-tier cities exhibit resilience, particularly high-quality projects that continue to sell well despite overall market trends [7][25]. - The interaction between new home sales and land auctions has created a positive feedback loop, enhancing market confidence [11][34]. - Ongoing policy support, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions, has been crucial for market performance, especially in core cities [12][37]. Summary by Sections Secondary Housing Market - The secondary housing market has seen a notable increase in transaction activity, with a 45% year-on-year rise in transactions in first-tier cities from January to March 2025 [6][21]. - In March 2025, daily average transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showed significant growth compared to the previous year, indicating a strong recovery [21][22]. - Price stability in the secondary market is essential for boosting buyer confidence and overall market recovery [6][21]. New Housing Market - High-quality new homes in first-tier cities are performing well, with notable sales figures reported for premium projects [7][25]. - The shift in buyer preferences towards quality living spaces is evident, with safety, comfort, and sustainability becoming key considerations [7][25][28]. - New housing supply is increasingly focused on larger units, reflecting a growing demand for improved living conditions [31][32]. Market Dynamics - The recovery in new home sales has positively impacted land auction activities, leading to increased competition and higher land prices [11][34]. - The average premium rates for land auctions in major cities have risen significantly, indicating renewed confidence among developers [11][34]. Policy Support - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in core cities has played a vital role in the market's recovery, with significant increases in new home sales reported [12][37]. - The introduction of housing vouchers and urban village renovations is expected to further stimulate demand and improve market conditions [38][40].