国防军工：大飞机产业链自主可控或迫在眉睫，市场空间广阔

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The development of China's large aircraft industry is accelerating, with significant market expansion opportunities. The global demand for commercial aircraft is expected to reach 48,455 units by 2042, with China accounting for 9,969 units, representing 21% of the global market [4][5] - The domestic aircraft engine market is projected to exceed $600 billion over the next 20 years, with an average annual demand of over 200 billion RMB, indicating a vast market potential [5] - The avionics systems sector is transitioning from basic capabilities to advanced functionalities, presenting a historic development opportunity for China's civil aviation avionics industry [6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The global commercial aircraft market is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase in China's fleet to 9,969 aircraft by 2042, which is 2.2 times the 2022 figure [4] - The C919 aircraft's production capacity is set to expand to 150 units per year by 2027 and 200 units by 2029, with plans for faster deployment in Southeast Asia and positive progress in European airworthiness [4] Engine Systems - The engine system, referred to as the "heart" of large aircraft, accounts for approximately 20-30% of the total aircraft value. The maintenance costs over the engine's lifecycle are expected to match the purchase costs [5] - The domestic engine market is expected to see a demand exceeding $600 billion over the next 20 years, with significant growth potential for local manufacturers [5] Avionics Systems - The avionics systems are crucial for flight safety and operational efficiency, and the industry is poised for significant advancements as domestic aircraft like the C919 enter the market [6] - By 2025, the industry aims to establish a comprehensive avionics product system and a leading technological innovation framework [6] Investment Recommendations - Strategic focus on investment opportunities in the large aircraft supply chain, including materials and structural manufacturing, engine systems, and avionics systems [6] - Key companies identified for investment include: - Materials and structural manufacturing: 中航高科, 光威复材, 中航沈飞, etc. - Engine systems: 航发商发, 航发科技, etc. - Avionics systems: 中航机载, 江航装备, etc. [6][8]