Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The steel market is affected by the China-US trade friction. The direct export impact of tariffs on steel is small, but the indirect impact is relatively large. Both direct and indirect steel exports will be affected to some extent in the future. For the steel market, it is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The iron ore market is facing a situation where supply is expected to increase and demand to decline. Considering factors such as high iron - water production, low finished - product demand, and potential macro - policy benefits, it is expected to have a small rebound or maintain a volatile trend in the near term, and the idea of shorting on rebounds for the 09 contract remains [1]. - The coking coal market shows a supply - demand game pattern in the short term. Market sentiment is greatly affected by the realization of terminal demand and macro - policies. Key factors to focus on include the profit - repair rhythm of downstream coking and steel enterprises, the stability of Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the upstream inventory accumulation speed [3]. - The coke market may continue the volatile trend in the short term under the support of rigid demand. However, risks such as the peak and decline of iron - water production and the impact of macro - policies on the industrial chain need to be noted. Key factors to follow are the profit - repair rhythm of steel mills, the cost change of raw coal, and the regulatory direction of policies on the black - series industrial chain [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the 05 contract was 121 (-2). The short - term market fluctuates around the tariff policy. In 2024, China's steel exports to the US were 890,000 tons, accounting for only 0.8% of the total export volume. According to Mysteel's calculation, China's indirect steel exports reached 140 million tons last year, with more than 1 million tons exported to the US. Whether fiscal and monetary policies will be introduced in China needs further observation [1]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton (+6). The Platts 62% index was 99.95 US dollars/ton (+0.50), with a monthly average of 99.92 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 102 yuan/ton (0). The latest total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,434.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.7. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 23,418.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 221.98. The daily iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 240.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49 [1]. Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic coal mines in major production areas maintain normal production, with only a few mines having phased production restrictions. Imported Mongolian coal customs clearance is under pressure. Demand: After the first price increase of coking enterprises, the replenishment of raw coal by coking enterprises is mainly for rigid demand, and the speculative demand in the market has cooled down. Steel mills mainly adopt a low - inventory procurement strategy. The coking coal market shows a supply - demand game pattern in the short term, and market sentiment is greatly affected by terminal demand and macro - policies [3]. Coke - Supply: After the first price increase of coking enterprises, the profitability has improved, and overall production remains stable. Coking enterprises have smooth shipments, and inventory pressure has eased. Demand: Steel mills maintain a high blast - furnace operating rate, but the replenishment rhythm has become more cautious. The coke market may continue to fluctuate in the short term under rigid demand, but risks such as the decline of iron - water production and the impact of macro - policies need to be noted [4]. Industry and Economic News - In the first quarter of 2025, Vale's total iron ore production was 6.7664 million tons, a 20.7% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 4.5% decrease year - on - year. The total sales volume was 6.6141 million tons, an 18.5% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.6% increase year - on - year. Rio Tinto's iron ore production in the Pilbara region in the first quarter of 2025 was 6.98 million tons, a 19% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 10% decrease year - on - year. The shipment volume was 7.07 million tons, a 17% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 9% decrease year - on - year [6]. - China and Vietnam issued a joint statement on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership and accelerating the construction of a China - Vietnam community with a shared future. They will accelerate the docking of development strategies and promote infrastructure connectivity [6]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that the J2604 contract of coke futures will be listed for trading on April 16, with a listing benchmark price of 1647.5 yuan/ton [6]. - In early April, key steel enterprises produced 21.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.197 million tons, a 3.4% increase in daily output compared with the previous period. The steel inventory was 16.04 million tons, an 810,000 - ton increase compared with the previous ten - day period, a 5.3% increase [6]. - From April 7 to April 13, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.3199 million square meters, a 18.4% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 18.6% decrease year - on - year. The total transaction area of second - hand housing was 2.6587 million square meters, a 39.5% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 24.5% increase year - on - year [6].
长江期货黑色产业日报-20250416
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-16 01:31