宝城期货甲醇早报-20250416

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Although the risk - preference in the financial market has increased due to Trump's move to reduce the intensity of the tariff war, the domestic methanol market still faces supply pressure. The 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents - Price and Market Performance - On Tuesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures rebounded weakly, rose and then fell, with the price slightly up 0.04% to 2,279 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Logic - Positive factor: Trump's initiative to reduce the intensity of the tariff war has released a positive signal to the market, the risk - preference in the financial market has increased, and the bullish sentiment in the methanol market has been restored [5]. - Negative factors: The domestic methanol supply pressure is large. During the Spring Festival maintenance period, the high profit of coal - to - methanol this year has led to high weekly output and operating rate. Meanwhile, the downstream demand for methanol has only slightly improved [5]. - Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2509 contract is in a volatile state [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2509 contract is in a weak and volatile state [1][5]. - Intraday: The methanol 2509 contract is in a weak and volatile state [1][5].