申万期货品种策略日报：黑色-20250416

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is currently facing weak terminal demand, with no clear improvement in fundamentals. Although the steel mills' profits have recovered and production has increased, the sustainability of real steel demand needs careful observation. The market is expected to be weak after a short - term shock - driven upward movement. The iron ore market has support from iron ore demand due to the potential for further increase in molten iron production and good steel mill profits. However, there is a large medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure, and it is expected to be weak after a short - term rebound. The coking coal and coke market has the potential for upward valuation repair supported by the recovery of downstream demand, and attention should be paid to the digestion of upstream inventory. The ferroalloy market may have stronger support at the bottom driven by the recovery of demand, and attention should be paid to the digestion of market inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Prices and Changes: For example, the previous day's closing price of coke 01 contract was 1622, down 7 from the day before, with a decline of 0.4%; the previous day's closing price of iron ore 05 contract was 766, up 7 from the day before, with an increase of 0.9%. There were also changes in price ratios and spreads of different contracts, such as the coke 1 - 5 spread changing from 80 to 55 [2]. - Spot Market and Basis: In the coke spot market, the spot price at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port remained at 1340; in the iron ore spot market, the price of PBF (Fe61.5%) increased from 842 to 849. The basis of different varieties also changed to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Profit - Profit Changes: Coke simulation profit decreased from 63 to - 385; steel simulation profit increased from - 53 to - 49; the profit of steel mills on the futures market decreased from - 48 to - 71; the profit of coking plants on the futures market increased from 312 to 327 [3]. 3.3 Macro News - On April 15, Premier Li Qiang emphasized during a research trip in Beijing to calmly respond to difficulties and challenges brought by external shocks, promote consumption and expand domestic demand with greater efforts, and further release the vitality and potential of China's super - large - scale market [3]. 3.4 Industry Information - From April 7 - 13, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 131.99 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.6%; the total transaction area of second - hand housing was 265.87 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 24.5% [3]. - For steel, the tariff exemption has no direct impact, and the indirect export impact has not been realized. Terminal demand is weak, and the real steel demand needs careful observation. For iron ore, although the supply is expected to change, the demand is supported by the increase in molten iron production. For coking coal and coke, there is potential for upward valuation repair. For ferroalloys, the cost support has weakened, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel procurement and the digestion of inventory [3].