山金期货黑色板块日报-20250416

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade tensions have disrupted the market, causing significant fluctuations in global capital markets and dragging down black - series commodities. The downstream demand in April has reached its peak, with limited room for further growth and a possible decline. [2][3] - In the real estate sector, the land auction market in core cities has heated up rapidly, indicating a potential stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. However, the real estate markets in lower - tier cities are still in the process of bottoming out. [2][3] - The trade war will have a negative impact on the downstream consumption and exports of steel plates. Policy - based hedging measures are expected to be introduced soon. [2] - For both steel and iron ore, the futures prices are expected to have a higher probability of oscillating downward in the future. [2][3] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - Price and Basis: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils have shown different changes compared to the previous day and week. The basis and spreads of various contracts also have corresponding fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3125 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous day and up 0.77% from the previous week. [2] - Production and Inventory: The production of threaded steel has increased, while the production of hot - rolled coils has decreased. The total inventory of five major steel products has continued to decline, with social inventory decreasing and factory inventory increasing for some products. For instance, the national building materials steel mill's threaded steel production is 232.37 tons, up 1.63% from the previous week, and the hot - rolled coil production is 313.3 tons, down 2.91% from the previous week. [2] - Market Transactions: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume has decreased compared to the previous day but increased compared to the previous week. The terminal procurement volume of wire rods and screws in Shanghai has increased. [2] - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly. [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Price and Basis: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have changed. The basis and spreads of futures contracts also show different trends. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 713 yuan/dry ton, up 0.99% from the previous day and 2.89% from the previous week. [4] - Supply and Demand: The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory in China has rebounded. The steel mill's profitability is acceptable, and the iron - making water production has shown a resumption trend, but the room for further increase is limited. [3][4] - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly. [4] 3.3 Industry News - On April 15, the mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market raised the purchase price of coke by 50 yuan/ton for wet - quenched coke and 55 yuan/ton for dry - quenched coke. The coke price in the Ordos market also increased by 50/55 yuan/ton. [5] - In early April 2025, the key steel enterprises produced 2197 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 219.7 million tons, a 3.4% increase in daily output compared to the previous period. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products has different changes. [5] - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 Chinese ports is 14637.45 million tons, a decrease of 267.94 million tons compared to the previous Monday. [6]