能源日报：IEA下调全球石油供应与需求增长-20250416

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's May - delivery light crude oil futures price dropped 20 cents to $61.33 per barrel, a 0.33% decline; June - delivery London Brent crude oil futures price fell 21 cents to $64.67 per barrel, a 0.32% decline. SC crude oil's main contract rose 0.11% to 475 yuan per barrel [1] - IEA cut the 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 730,000 barrels per day from the previous 1.03 million barrels per day, reducing the total demand from the previous average of 103.9 million barrels per day to 103.5 million barrels per day. It also cut the 2025 global supply growth forecast by 260,000 barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels per day due to reduced production in the US and Venezuela. For 2026, it expects global oil demand growth to slow further to 610,000 barrels per day and supply to increase by 960,000 barrels per day, reaching a total supply of 105.2 million barrels per day [1] - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending April 11 was 2.402 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.017 million barrels and a previous value of - 1.057 million barrels [1] - Nigeria plans to build a national strategic petroleum product reserve this year to protect its economy from international market volatility. The new reserve, modeled after the US strategic petroleum reserve, will be much larger than the current reserve that can meet about 30 days of supply [1] - The EU is exploring legal options to allow European companies to breach long - term Russian gas contracts without paying huge fines by declaring force majeure [1] - Kuwait has started administrative measures to merge two state - owned oil companies. Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) plans to acquire Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company (KIPIC) [1] - Iraq cut the oil price in its federal budget, expecting the 2025 oil price to be lower than last year's average of $80 per barrel [1] - Indonesia will propose to increase the scale of oil and liquefied petroleum gas imports from the US by about $10 billion [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - IEA's monthly report is not extremely bearish. Although oil demand growth was revised down by 300,000 barrels per day, oil supply growth was also revised down by 260,000 barrels per day. When oil prices fall below $60 per barrel, US shale oil supply growth will face pressure, especially for shale oil production led by private enterprises. However, an important contributor to US crude oil production growth this year is the deep - water oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico, whose production is not affected by low oil prices [2] Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and be configured as short - positions in the medium term [4]