Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The spot supply of lithium carbonate remains relatively high, and the center of spot transactions is moving downward. The supply-demand pattern is still in surplus, and there is still room for lithium prices to fall under the weak macro - sentiment and fundamental situation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On April 15, 2025, the main contract 2505 of lithium carbonate opened at 70,760 yuan/ton and closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 39,365 lots, and the open interest was 112,411 lots, a decrease of 5,721 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 323,050 lots, an increase of 1,360 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 55,708 lots from the previous day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.24. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 29,283 lots, an increase of 260 lots from the previous day. The futures price was at a discount of 830 yuan/ton to the spot price of electric carbon [1]. - According to SMM data, on April 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,200 - 72,900 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 69,150 - 70,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Downstream material factories mainly make rigid - demand purchases and have no inventory - building plans. There is a large gap between the quotes of upstream lithium salt factories and the expected purchase prices of downstream, resulting in few market transactions [1]. Overall Situation - The spot supply is still at a relatively high level, and the center of spot transactions has moved down. Some salt factories have plans for production cuts and maintenance, but the surplus pattern has not changed. The current transactions are mainly for rigid demand, with a high proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products. The upstream lithium salt factories still have a certain sentiment of supporting prices, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. The number of new warehouse receipt registrations is large, and the warehouse receipts continue to increase [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Operate within a range and sell for hedging at high prices [3]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bearish spread options [3].
下游维持刚需采购，碳酸锂盘面震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-04-16 03:15