尿素早评：低多思路为主-20250416

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures. The reasons are that the absolute price is at a low level, there is demand expectation during the peak season, and the inventory reduction pressure on the upstream is not significant [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - UR01 closed at 1738 yuan/ton on April 15, down 22 yuan or 1.25% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1816 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.77%; UR09 closed at 1767 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or 1.23% [1]. - Domestic spot prices in various regions showed different changes. For example, in Shandong, the price was 1900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.53%; in Shanxi, it was 1770 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.13% [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively; the compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan were stable at 3000 yuan/ton and 2580 yuan/ton [1]. - The melamine price in Shandong remained unchanged at 5650 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu, it dropped 100 yuan or 1.72% to 5700 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2505 was 1819 yuan/ton, the highest was 1832 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1801 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1802 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1816 yuan/ton. The position was 106857 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated weakly and closed at 1802. The recent weakening of the market was partly affected by the rumor that the Indian tender was lower than expected. However, the domestic urea export has not been liberalized, and the domestic demand situation has a greater impact on prices. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [1].