豆粕日报：高位整理趋弱-20250416

Report Investment Ratings No information provided on the overall industry investment ratings Core Views - 豆粕: High-level consolidation with a weakening trend. The positive impact of China-US trade tariff events is limited. Short-term marginal supply is increasing, and it is expected to gradually return to fundamentals, with a risk of weakening [1][3]. - 菜粕: High-level oscillation with a weakening trend. Short-term supply is expected to be sufficient, and it may gradually return to a weak operation based on fundamentals as the impact of China-US trade tariff events cools [1][6]. - 棕榈油: Short-term rebound. International palm oil prices may see a downward shift in the center of gravity. Pay attention to international price guidance and consider short-selling opportunities after the rebound [1][8]. - 棉花: Under pressure and oscillating. The international cotton market faces pressure, and the domestic market has a high inventory and a weak consumption policy, with overall prices remaining weak [1][13]. - 红枣: Weak operation. The current supply-demand pattern shows strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to maintain a weak trend in the near term [1][15]. - 生猪: Wide-range oscillation in the short term. Supply pressure is expected to dominate the market in the second half of 2025. Consider short-selling opportunities on the rebound based on the basis convergence logic of Contracts 5 and 7 [1][18]. Summary by Variety 豆粕 - International: The impact of China-US trade tariff events is limited, South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting is about to start [1][3]. - Domestic: Ports and oil mills have seen two consecutive weeks of soybean inventory accumulation, and the soybean processing rate has rebounded. Monthly imports from April to June are expected to exceed 10 million tons. The inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle next week [1][3]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3066 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3471.71 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [2]. 菜粕 - Domestic: The inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and new-season rapeseed will be harvested in May, with sufficient short-term supply. The substitution advantage of rapeseed meal has reappeared after the spot price difference with soybean meal has returned [1][6]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2673 yuan/ton, down 1.76% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2635.79 yuan/ton, down 1.42% [4]. 棕榈油 - International: In April, both supply and demand increased, and the price center of gravity may gradually shift downward. Malaysia's palm oil exports have been good recently, maintaining a short-term rebound [1][8]. - Domestic: Low commercial inventory and imports, with no supply pressure for now. Pay attention to international price guidance [1][7]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8720 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The national average price was 9230 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [7]. 棉花 - International: The ICE market has eased due to the suspension of some tariffs by Trump. The April supply-demand balance sheet is slightly negative for the global cotton market. US cotton exports and prices face pressure [1][13]. - Domestic: High industrial and commercial inventories are gradually being reduced. New cotton is being sown, and there are no obvious negative weather warnings. China-US trade tensions may lead to a decline in textile exports to the US and an increase in domestic supply [1][13]. - Price: The main contract CF2509 closed at 12880 yuan/ton, up 0.55% intraday. The domestic spot average price was 14310 yuan/ton, down 0.03% [10][11]. 红枣 - Market: The trading volume is low, and the market is in a traditional consumption off-season. Fresh fruits are gradually entering the market, squeezing the market share of dried fruits [1][15]. - Production Area: Xinjiang's main production areas' jujube trees are still dormant, and attention should be paid to weather disturbances [15]. - Price: The main contract CJ2505 closed at 9085 yuan/ton, down 0.71% intraday. The spot prices in various regions remained stable [14][15]. 生猪 - Supply: The supply pressure from April to June has limited growth, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is expected to increase. The overall supply pressure in the second half of 2025 is expected to be high [17][18]. - Demand: Demand has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Pay attention to the improvement of seasonal demand [17]. - Price: The main contract Lh2505 closed at 14510 yuan/ton, down 0.24% intraday. The domestic spot average price was 15010 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [16][17].