Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, with the fading of Sino - US tariff war sentiment, prices are returning to fundamentals. The new resource tax regulations may increase costs, and there are expectations of favorable policies in the later period. It is expected to oscillate upward to find a pressure level in the near term and then oscillate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, the idea of selling hedges on rallies is maintained [3]. - For the stainless steel market, the new Indonesian resource tax regulations may increase costs, and there are expectations of favorable policies in the later period. It is expected to oscillate upward to find a pressure level in the near term and then oscillate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, the idea of selling hedges on rallies is also maintained [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - Price and Trading Volume: On April 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2505 opened at 123,480 yuan/ton and closed at 124,240 yuan/ton, a change of 1.05% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 142,349 lots, and the open interest was 64,226 lots [1]. - Market Trends: The night session of the Shanghai nickel main contract opened higher with a gap, then quickly fell after hitting resistance, and oscillated back up after getting support. The day session oscillated upward, hitting a new rebound high and closing with a mid -阳线. The trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Economic Data: In the first quarter, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 10.3 trillion yuan, a 1.3% increase. Exports were 6.13 trillion yuan, a 6.9% increase, while imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, a 6% decrease. At the end of March, the broad - money (M2) balance was 326.06 trillion yuan, a 7.0% year - on - year increase, the same as the previous month. The narrow - money (M1) balance was 113.49 trillion yuan, a 1.6% year - on - year increase, 1.5 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month. The stock of social financing scale at the end of March 2025 was 422.96 trillion yuan, an 8.4% year - on - year increase, 0.2 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month [2]. - Policy Impact: The new regulations on mineral and coal resource taxes in Indonesia may be implemented this week, with a progressive mining right tax rate for commodities such as coal, nickel, copper, gold, silver, and tin. When the HMA price is less than $18,000/ton, the nickel ore tax rate is adjusted from 10% to 14%, and the nickel ore price is expected to rise by $3/wet ton, increasing the nickel cost by about 2,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot Market: The morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was raised by about 800 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The nickel price on the intraday disk continued to rise, and the market was cautious. The spot trading of refined nickel was average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 200 yuan/ton to 2,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 25 yuan/ton to 225 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,884 (237.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 202,818 (- 1,554) tons [2]. Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations [4]. - Other Strategies: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies are recommended [4]. Stainless Steel Market Analysis - Price and Trading Volume: On April 15, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2505 opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,860 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,336 lots, and the open interest was 131,677 lots [4]. - Market Trends: The night session of the stainless steel main contract opened higher with a gap, then oscillated horizontally after hitting resistance. The day session continued to oscillate horizontally after opening and slightly rose near the close, closing with a positive line. The trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly [4]. - Cost Impact: The new regulations on mineral and coal resource taxes in Indonesia may be implemented this week. When the HMA price is less than $18,000/ton, the nickel ore tax rate is adjusted from 10% to 14%, and the nickel ore price is expected to rise by $3/wet ton, increasing the ferronickel cost by 20 yuan/nickel [4][5]. - Spot Market: The stainless steel disk mainly oscillated, and the quotations were basically flat. The market inquiries were average, and the overall trading was limited. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,200 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,225 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 430 - 630 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 992.0 yuan/nickel point [5]. Stainless Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [5]. - Other Strategies: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies are recommended [5].
镍价连续回升，市场观望情绪加重
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-04-16 03:23