工业硅、多晶硅早报：关税博弈升级，多晶硅日内探底回升-20250416

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Weak oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation with a bullish bias [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of tariff games led to an intraday decline and subsequent rebound of polysilicon. The tariff on imported goods from the US increased from 34% to 84% [1] - Industrial silicon production remains high, downstream polysilicon production stabilizes, organic silicon consumption weakens, silicon - aluminum alloy consumption remains stable, and high inventory suppresses prices. It is less affected by tariffs but may fall due to sentiment in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - Polysilicon production stabilizes at the bottom, downstream demand has improvement expectations, and inventory is in the destocking cycle. It has insufficient upward - driving factors in the short term and is expected to oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - to - long term [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Spot price: The price of East China non - oxygenated 553 silicon is 9900 - 10000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Production: In March, industrial silicon production climbed to 342,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons from February. The production in Sichuan and Yunnan has dropped to historical lows, while the national production increase is mainly contributed by Xinjiang. There are rumors that a large northwest factory plans to reduce production by 20 submerged arc furnaces, and some furnaces have started to cut production [2] - Cost: The current spot price has broken through the cost line, and the cost side may have limited support for silicon prices [2] Downstream Demand Side - Polysilicon: In March, the production stabilized at 96,000 tons. Under the expectation of photovoltaic supply - side reform, the production bottom has little fluctuation, and the demand for industrial silicon stabilizes [2] - Organic silicon DMC: The price is firm, monomer manufacturers start joint production cuts, production is expected to continue to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon decreases [2] - Alloy silicon: The price has been boosted, but the consumption is small and cannot support the price. The demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2] Inventory - The inventory pressure is large. This week's inventory increased by 6,000 tons compared with last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 600,000 tons [2] Polysilicon Supply Side - Spot price: The spot price of polysilicon remains stable, and the prices of all specifications are stable. N - type silicon material has a strong price - support intention [3] - Production: In March, the production slightly recovered to 96,000 tons. Under industry self - discipline, each factory produces according to the quota, and the production will not fluctuate greatly [3] Downstream Demand Side - Silicon wafers: The production shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding, the price has a small increase, the inventory is in the destocking cycle, and the rapid destocking supports the price [3] - Battery cells and components: The production schedule in April is good, which supports polysilicon [3] Inventory - Affected by the Spring Festival, there is a slight inventory accumulation, but it is still in the destocking cycle, and the price is prone to rise and difficult to fall [3]