沪锌早报：美或豁免汽车关税，关税情绪或有缓和-20250416

Report on Zinc Futures 1. Industry Investment Rating - Zinc - Temporarily hold [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Although there are still concerns about Sino - US trade, the market expects the US attitude to ease, and the sector sentiment has improved. Zinc ingot production resumption is underway, while the uncertainty of galvanized production growth remains high, and it may weaken in the medium term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - US President Trump is considering a temporary exemption from tariffs on imported cars and parts to give car companies more time to build production facilities in the US, but the duration is not specified [1] Mine End - In terms of TC changes, the mine end has fully loosened. The TC price in the zinc concentrate market continues to rebound, and the looseness of the mine end has increased again [1] Smelting - With high production profits of zinc concentrate enterprises, smelting profits have quickly recovered with the rebound of processing fees. Pure smelting enterprises are profitable without considering by - product profits, and integrated enterprise profits remain high. Domestic zinc concentrate smelting enterprise operating rates are likely to remain high, and smelting output is expected to be high, making the supply end fully loose. If the TC price rises to about 4,000 yuan/ton, the maximum decline space of zinc price is expected to be above 20,000 yuan/ton [2] Demand - Downstream galvanized profits are in the process of recovery, at a medium level since 2018. The consumer - end profits are acceptable and inventory is low, which may support zinc prices to some extent. However, the core contradiction of loose supply in the medium term remains unchanged, and zinc prices still face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low of 21,000 yuan/ton [2] Operation Suggestion - Wait for an opportunity to short [3] Report on Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures 1. Industry Investment Rating - Nickel - Roll short - Stainless steel - Hold [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Although there are still concerns about Sino - US trade, the market expects the US attitude to ease, and the sector sentiment has improved. As the previous price reached the cost - expected level, nickel prices rebounded in the short term. However, the fundamental surplus trend remains unchanged, and the support from the mine end is not sustainable. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the tight pressure at the mine end after the Philippines emerges from the rainy season, as well as the difference in demand strength between stainless steel and nickel due to US tariff policies [5] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - In Q1 2025, Vale's nickel production was 43,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%, mainly due to higher production after the furnace reconstruction of the Onça Puma operation area in Q1 2024 and the output increase of the VBME project in Canadian assets [4] Mine End - Indonesia plans to increase mining royalties in the second week of April, which may support the framework. The Philippines is still in the rainy season, and nickel ore prices may rise slightly, but there is no continuous upward momentum as the futures market may trade in advance for the Philippines to emerge from the rainy season [4] Smelting - China imports relatively little pure nickel, while domestic production has recovered rapidly. The total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month but remains at the highest level in the same period in history. The production cost of electrowon nickel has risen to 124,000 yuan/ton at the end of February. The upper pressure line can be obtained from the cost of external procurement manufacturers and the critical point of downstream nickel sulfate. The demand support provided by the cost of downstream nickel sulfate is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both lower than before [5] Demand - Stainless steel is not on the US tariff list. Under the premise that nickel is on the tariff list, the export demand for stainless steel may increase, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel. The relatively firm price of ferronickel makes the profit of stainless steel manufacturers low, which may affect subsequent production and reduce the demand for nickel elements [5] Operation Suggestion - Take profit on previous short positions; temporarily hold [6]