光大期货能化商品日报-20250416

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of crude oil is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. IEA's reduction in demand forecasts and API's inventory data affect the price, while Trump's tariff exemption suggestion limits the decline. The market also focuses on the progress of US - Iran negotiations [1]. - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, and polyester are expected to follow the high volatility of oil prices in the short - term, with attention to tariff policies and macro - sentiment disturbances. The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are slightly supported, while high - sulfur fuel oil faces pressure. The cost support of asphalt is weakening, and the polyester chain is expected to be weakly volatile [1][3]. - The price of rubber is expected to be weakly volatile. Domestic rubber has started production, overseas is about to start, downstream tire factories have reduced their loads, and terminal orders are cautious [5]. - The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate. The domestic supply is at a high level, and the short - term arrival volume is low, but the long - term supply may increase. The demand is expected to be high in the near term but may weaken in the long term [6]. - The price of polyolefins is expected to fluctuate. The supply pressure is expected to ease, but the downstream demand has weakened marginally. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and Chinese policies [6]. - The price of PVC is expected to fluctuate. Both supply and demand will weaken marginally, and enterprises face difficulties in destocking. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, WTI May contract closed down $0.20 to $61.33 per barrel, a 0.33% decline; Brent June contract closed down $0.21 to $64.67 per barrel, a 0.32% decline; SC2505 closed up 0.5 yuan to 474.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.11% increase. IEA cut the global oil demand growth forecast from 1.03 million barrels per day to 0.73 million barrels per day this year and to 0.69 million barrels per day next year. API data showed an increase in US crude oil inventory and a decrease in refined oil inventory. The market is watching the US - Iran negotiations, and the price will fluctuate in the short - term [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil FU2507 rose 2.33% to 2947 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2506 rose 1.28% to 3393 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur market has some support, and the high - sulfur market faces pressure. The price will follow the oil price with high volatility [3]. - Asphalt: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt BU2506 fell 0.12% to 3301 yuan per ton. The cost support weakened, and the supply may increase in the short - term if the production profit is further repaired. The downstream demand is relatively stable, and the price will follow the oil price with high volatility [3]. - Polyester: TA505 closed down 1.01% at 4324 yuan per ton, and EG2505 closed down 1.51% at 4178 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and some devices are planned for maintenance or restart. The price of the polyester chain is expected to be weakly volatile [3][5]. - Rubber: On Tuesday, the main contract of rubber RU2505 fell 370 yuan to 14710 yuan per ton. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade warehouses decreased, while the inventory in the bonded area increased. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [5]. - Methanol: The supply is at a high level, and the short - term arrival volume is low, but the long - term supply may increase. The demand is expected to be high in the near term but may weaken in the long term. The price will fluctuate [6]. - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is expected to ease, but the downstream demand has weakened marginally. The short - term inventory pressure is high. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and Chinese policies, and the price will fluctuate [6]. - PVC: The supply is decreasing, and the demand will weaken marginally. Enterprises face difficulties in destocking, and the price will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on April 15 and 14, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - IEA followed OPEC in significantly cutting its oil demand forecast, which put pressure on oil prices. Trump's suggestion of new tariff exemptions limited the decline. IEA cut the global oil demand growth forecast due to rising trade tensions [12]. - API data showed that as of the week of April 11, US API crude oil inventory increased by 2.4 million barrels, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 1.68 - million - barrel decrease. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.349 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 3.2 million barrels [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The document provides line charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [14][15] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [29][34] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It presents the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [45][47] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, etc. [61][63] - 4.5 Production Profits: It shows the cash - flow and profit charts of the production of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [69]