碳酸锂日报-20250416

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2505 contract dropped 0.17% to 70,720 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 71,550 yuan/ton, while the industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 69,650 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 100 yuan/ton to 68,950 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 100 yuan/ton to 74,075 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 250 tons to 29,283 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production of lithium carbonate increased slightly month - on - month, and the production in April is expected to reach nearly 80,000 tons, with the daily average production increasing by 4% month - on - month. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials increased significantly month - on - month, the production of lithium iron phosphate remained stable month - on - month, and the daily average consumption of lithium carbonate increased by about 5% month - on - month. The inventory turnover days of cathode materials increased slightly for ternary materials and decreased slightly for lithium iron phosphate. The weekly inventory increased by 1,633 tons to 131,000 tons, with a decrease in other inventories and an increase in both upstream and downstream inventories [3]. - The price is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, attention should be paid to the upstream production suspension and reduction, warehouse receipt inventory, and lithium ore price trends. In the medium term, the equilibrium price center will shift downward, the market procurement activity is average, and the downstream finished product inventory pressure is relatively large [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures and spot prices: The lithium carbonate futures 2505 contract fell 0.17% to 70,720 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped 50 yuan/ton, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) and (micropowder) dropped 100 yuan/ton each [3]. - Supply and demand: Supply - side weekly production increased slightly, with April production expected near 80,000 tons and daily average up 4%. Demand - side ternary material production rose significantly, lithium iron phosphate stable, and daily lithium carbonate consumption up 5%. Inventory turnover days varied for different materials, and weekly inventory increased to 131,000 tons [3]. - Price trend: Price to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton, short - term focus on upstream production, inventory, and ore prices; medium - term price center to shift down [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The main contract closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the continuous contract closed at 70,600 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: Some lithium ore prices decreased, such as lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) down 15 yuan/ton and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O:6% - 7%) down 40 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium salts: Battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices decreased, while industrial - grade lithium carbonate and some other products remained stable [5]. - Price spreads: Battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and other spreads also showed changes [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Most precursor and cathode material prices decreased slightly [5]. - Batteries: Some battery prices changed slightly, such as 523 square ternary cell price up 0.002 yuan/Wh and square lithium iron phosphate cell price down 0.003 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][10][11]. - Price spreads: Illustrate the price spreads between different lithium products, including battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and others from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Present the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][22][24]. - Lithium battery prices: Show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - Inventory: Display the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from August 2024 to April 2025 [35][36][37]. - Production cost: Illustrate the production profit trends of different raw - material - based lithium carbonate production from 2024 to 2025 [39][40][41].