Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but due to the relatively low current Treasury bond yields and the potential for China's economic recovery, a certain degree of caution is advised [7]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on China's equity market. After event shocks, China's economy and assets will still operate according to their own laws, and the long - term performance of China's equity assets is still optimistic, waiting for opportunities to go long [8]. - The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and previous long positions can continue to be held [10]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and coking coal and coke, investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities, take profits in time when there is a rebound, and pay attention to position management [12][14][16]. - For iron alloys, consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on ferromanganese silicon in the low - level range and opportunities for short - position exits for ferrosilicon in the bottom range [19]. - For crude oil, consider temporarily observing the main contract [23]. - For fuel oil, consider temporarily observing the main contract [25]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to be weak in the short term [26]. - Natural rubber and urea are expected to temporarily stabilize [29][35]. - PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [31]. - PX is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side, with a lack of continuous upward drive [37]. - PTA is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with cost and demand gradually improving but lacking continuous upward drive [38]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with supply improving and demand being weak [39]. - Short - fiber is expected to adjust at the bottom following the cost side in the short term, with weak downstream terminal demand [40]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side, with a slight improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals but a lack of drive [41]. - Soda ash is expected to remain weak in the short term [42]. - Glass is expected to be dominated by weak market sentiment [44]. - For caustic soda, there may be an expectation of concentrated maintenance, and specific price fluctuations depend on the supply - demand game [45]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level in the short term, and the impact of tariff policies on the import supply structure needs to be observed [47]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be weak [48]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong, and it is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract [50]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate, and risks should be controlled in the short term [52]. - Nickel prices may return to the cost - support logic if the macro - sentiment stabilizes, and risks should be controlled in the short term [54]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider shorting at high levels during rebounds [55]. - For soybean meal, consider taking profits when the price rises; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options in the bottom - support range [58]. - For palm oil, consider temporarily observing [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [61]. - For cotton, suggest gradually taking profits on short positions [63]. - For sugar, suggest observing [68]. - For apples, consider going long at low levels after a pullback [72]. - For live pigs, consider shorting at high levels for two near - month contracts [75]. - For eggs, wait for the release of market sentiment in the short term [77]. - For corn, suggest temporarily observing [79]. - For logs, be vigilant against a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [81]. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts falling by 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 164.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 15, with a net withdrawal of 102.9 billion yuan on the same day [5]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures fell slightly, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures main contracts falling by 0.23%, 0.05%, 0.20%, and 0.38% respectively [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 764.44 with a 0.10% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 8,158 with a 0.83% increase [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,020 - 3,140 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,240 - 3,260 yuan/ton [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The PB powder port spot price was 770 yuan/ton, and the Super Special powder was 625 yuan/ton [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed mixed trends. The first - round increase in coke spot prices has been implemented [16]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract fell 1.58% to 5,868 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract fell 1.67% to 5,774 yuan/ton [18]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened higher and oscillated, standing above the 5 - day moving average [21]. - As of April 8, speculators reduced their net long positions in WTI crude oil futures and options by 29,690 lots [21]. - In March, OPEC + production increased by 30,000 barrels per day to 41.04 million barrels per day [21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, opening higher and rising. Asian fuel oil spot trading strengthened [24]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 2.69%. The Shandong mainstream price remained stable at 12,000 yuan/ton [26]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 2.36%, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 2.46%. The Shanghai spot price dropped to 14,750 yuan/ton [29]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 0.24%. The spot price remained stable [31]. Urea - The content is the same as that of natural rubber, with the same price and market analysis [35]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2505 main contract fell 1.66%. The PXN spread dropped to $180/ton, and the PX - MX spread was around $60/ton [37]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2505 main contract fell 1.34%. The East China market price was 4,350 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.51% [38]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.95%. The East China market price was 4,320 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.81% [39]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2505 main contract fell 1.87%. The device load dropped to around 91% [40]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2505 main contract fell 1.39%. The device load rose to around 73% [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the 2505 main contract closed at 1,331 yuan/ton, falling 0.30% [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the 2505 main contract closed at 1,144 yuan/ton, falling 0.44% [43]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the 2505 main contract closed at 2,425 yuan/ton, rising 1.63% [45]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the 2507 main contract closed at 5,416 yuan/ton, falling 0.04% [47]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract closed down 0.17% to 70,720 yuan/ton [48]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated lower. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 76,100 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [49]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin fell 0.54% to 258,100 yuan/ton [52]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel prices rose 0.97% to 124,830 yuan/ton [53]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, the industrial silicon main contract closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, falling 2.50%; the polysilicon main contract closed at 40,485 yuan/ton, falling 2.79% [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.00% to 3,066 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.23% to 7,676 yuan/ton [57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell for the second consecutive day. From April 1 - 15, Malaysian palm oil exports increased [59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed resumed rising. China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes since March 20, 2025 [61]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated at a low level. As of April 13, the US cotton planting rate was 5% [62]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of March increased by nearly 10% year - on - year [65]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. As of April 9, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 398.63 million tons, a decrease of 38.90 million tons from the previous week [70]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the national average price of live pigs was 14.96 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan [73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in the main sales areas, it was 3.58 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan [76]. Corn - On the previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.60% to 2,302 yuan/ton. The 24/25 annual grain sales progress has exceeded 90% [78]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the 2507 main contract closed at 828.5 yuan/ton, falling 0.72% [80].
早间评论-20250416
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-04-16 05:11