金融期货早班车-20250416

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current spot market has significant fluctuations, and the futures market has a deep discount, presenting potential arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot markets [2]. - After the implementation of the US reciprocal tariffs, the stock index volatility has increased significantly. In the short - term, the index may be oversold. Attention should be paid to signs of tariff relaxation and structural opportunities in the stock market. With the RMB holding key levels, the index may stabilize. Currently, the valuation of IF is low, and it is recommended to allocate at low prices [2]. - In the short - term, treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the safe - haven property of Chinese treasury bonds is more prominent. Considering the unclear export prospects, the central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements to support the domestic economy, and the prices of long - term treasury bonds are expected to continue rising [3]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows a divergence in the economic fundamentals' prosperity. The prosperity of the import and export sectors continues to improve, while social activities are weaker than the same period [4]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 15, most of the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.15% to close at 3267.66 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.27% to close at 9858.1 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.13% to close at 1930.4 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.78% to close at 1006.34 points. The market turnover was 1.1102 trillion yuan, a decrease of 202.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The base spreads of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH are 121.03, 99.93, 38.83, and 16.79 points respectively, with annualized base - spread yields of - 24.36%, - 21.23%, - 12.29%, and - 7.59% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 1%, 1%, 1%, and 13% respectively [2]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 15, treasury bond futures declined. The 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.04% to close at 102.54 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.04% to close at 106.3 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.02% to close at 108.96 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.03% to close at 119.78 points [2]. - The current active contracts are the 2506 contracts. The CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures have high IRR and low basis, presenting potential arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot markets [3]. - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 164.5 billion yuan and withdrew 167.4 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2.9 billion yuan [3].