贵金属日评：各国关税谈判难满足特朗普要求，关注中国一季度经济及欧英通胀-20250416

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - Due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations, global fiscal easing expectations, the continuous gold purchases by central banks, and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summaries by Related Content Market Data - Shanghai Gold Futures: On April 15, 2025, the closing price was 762.00 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of - 0.14 yuan and a weekly increase of 34.41 yuan. The trading volume was 447,203.00 contracts, a daily decrease of 163,545.00 contracts and a weekly decrease of 80,413.00 contracts [1]. - Spot Shanghai Gold T + D: The trading volume was 39,928.00 kilograms, a daily decrease of 19,940.00 kilograms and a weekly decrease of 36,902.00 kilograms. The holding volume was 199,728.00 kilograms, a daily decrease of 3,700.00 kilograms [1]. - Shanghai Silver Futures: The closing price was 7,746.00 yuan/ten - grams. The trading volume of the spot Shanghai Silver T + D was 497,504.00 kilograms, a daily decrease of 64,762.00 kilograms and a weekly decrease of 280,640.00 kilograms [1]. - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 3,246.90 dollars/ounce, with a daily increase of 20.10 dollars. The trading volume was - 185,470.00 contracts, and the holding volume was 345,990.00 contracts [1]. - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 32.31 dollars/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.03 dollars. The trading volume was - 22,225.00 contracts, and the holding volume was 62,913.00 contracts [1]. Important Information - Geopolitical and Trade: Japan is not ready to make major concessions to the US and is not eager to reach an agreement. EU - US trade negotiations are at a deadlock, and the EU expects the US not to revoke most tariffs on Europe. The New York state manufacturing industry has shrunk for two consecutive months, and order expectations have dropped to the worst level since 9/11 [1]. - US Fiscal Policy: The US Congress has passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, 2025, including a 5.3 - trillion - dollar tax cut in the next decade, a 5 - billion - dollar increase in the debt ceiling, and a 4 - billion - dollar reduction in government spending. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be exhausted between August and September [1]. - Central Bank Policies: The Fed may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 more rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,050 - 3,150 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,700 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 720 - 740 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 780 - 870 yuan/gram. For London silver, focus on the support level around 28 - 30 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 7,400 - 7,800 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ten - grams [1].