日度策略参考-20250416

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: PTA, short - fiber, benzene - ethylene [1] - Bearish: polysilicon, BR rubber, urea, methanol [1] - Neutral: Most varieties are rated as "oscillating", including stock index, treasury bond, gold, etc.; some are "oscillating (-)", "oscillating (bullish)", "oscillating (bearish)"; and some are recommended to "observe" or "wait - and - see" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Market sentiment may improve as Sino - US trade frictions may enter the negotiation stage, but macro risks still exist due to ongoing tariff negotiations [1]. - Supply - demand relationships vary across different industries. Some industries face over - supply, while others see a narrowing gap between supply and demand [1]. - Different commodities show different price trends, including oscillations, upward movements, and downward trends, influenced by factors such as policies, supply - demand dynamics, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summaries by Industry Categories Macroeconomic Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid 3 - 4 day rebound, the upward momentum may weaken under macro - negative factors. The strategy is to buy on dips [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks limit the upside [1]. - Gold: After a short - term adjustment, it is expected to enter an oscillating phase and has long - term upward potential [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Oxide: With continuous release of domestic production capacity, the oversupply situation persists, putting pressure on prices [1]. - Zinc: Due to ongoing tariff negotiations and insufficient fundamental drivers, it is recommended to wait and observe, with potential for a backwardation trade [1]. - Nickel: After short - term macro - sentiment repair, nickel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. Attention should be paid to cost support and buying on dips is suggested [1]. - Stainless Steel: There is an expectation of bottom - end repair. It is advisable to wait and observe and consider buying on dips, while the industry should focus on policy changes and steel - mill production schedules [1]. - Tin: Semiconductors may be exempt from "reciprocal tariffs", leading to a short - term rebound. Continued attention should be paid to tin - mine resumption and tariff situations [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply is strengthening while demand is weakening, and it has entered a low - valuation range with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Polysilicon: The basic pattern is oversupply, and with the end of the installation rush, demand will decline in the second half of the year, and futures premiums are high [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The gap between supply and demand is narrowing. Although inventory is increasing, low prices are attracting downstream buyers [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Trade disputes are increasing pressure on the export chain, leading to a slightly lower risk appetite and downward - opening prices in the short term [1]. - Iron Ore: Tariff policies are affecting market sentiment, and iron ore, with strong financial attributes, is under short - term pressure [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron: Manganese silicon has high inventory but cost support, while silicon iron has cost loosening but production cuts in some areas and neutral social inventory [1]. - Glass: Demand is being released in pulses. As near - month positions decrease, the multi - short game is weakening [1]. - Soda Ash: Alkali plants are resuming production, and although demand is increasing, medium - term supply is expected to be excessive, putting pressure on prices [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Supply and demand are relatively excessive, and it is recommended that industrial customers take advantage of price rebounds for cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedges [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: With increasing production in Malaysia and rising inventory in Indonesia, the price center is expected to shift downward [1]. - Soybean Oil: The far - month contracts are bullish due to tariff policies, but the near - month contracts are weak due to high inventory. A backwardation trade can be considered [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Supported by Sino - Canadian trade uncertainties and recent cold snaps, the market is strong, but near - month contracts are under pressure from high inventory. A 5 - 9 backwardation trade can be considered [1]. - Cotton: If crude oil prices continue to fall, cotton - spinning demand may weaken, and the substitution effect between chemical fibers and cotton will also affect cotton prices. Overseas supply shortages and domestic high - level industrial inventory have different impacts on prices [1]. - Sugar: Overseas supply shortages are driving up the international sugar price, while domestic high - level industrial inventory is suppressing the domestic price [1]. - Corn: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate as the market waits for the release of spot pressure. In the medium term, it is expected to be slightly bullish due to tight annual supply - demand [1]. - Soybean Meal: The planting area in the US may be reduced, providing strong support for the bottom of US soybeans. Under the trade war, the far - month Brazilian discount is expected to have limited decline, and buying on dips for far - month contracts is recommended [1]. - Paper Pulp: There is no positive news, but the current futures price is significantly lower than the Russian needle pulp price, so it is recommended to wait and observe [1]. - Logs: With high inventory and falling terminal product prices, and further negative impacts from Sino - US trade disputes, the price is expected to oscillate downward [1]. - Pigs: With the continuous recovery of pig inventory and increasing slaughter weight, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Repeated US tariff policies, accelerated OPEC+ production increases, and the smooth progress of the Iran nuclear deal are affecting market sentiment [1]. - Asphalt: Cost - side drag, low but increasing inventory, and slow demand recovery are the main factors [1]. - Natural Rubber: Repeated US tariffs, increasing domestic inventory, and the impact of the state - reserve policy are influencing the market [1]. - PTA: As tariff panic eases, PX prices are rising strongly, but downstream production cuts are affecting demand [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Some production facilities are under maintenance or reducing production [1]. - Short - fiber: Factories are reducing production, expanding processing margins, and the cost side is strengthening [1]. - Styrene: Pure - benzene prices are rebounding, and downstream procurement demand is fair. The actual impact of tariffs on the spot market needs further observation [1]. - Urea: With fewer new orders, the market price is expected to be stable but weak in the short term [1]. - Methanol: The basis is stable, and the spot market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - PE: Due to high macro - risks, weak crude - oil prices, and insufficient orders, the market sentiment is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - PP: With the return of some previously - shut - down facilities, stable demand, and intensified trade wars, the market sentiment is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - PVC: Although short - term exports are good, the weak fundamentals and high macro - risks prevent a trending upward movement [1]. - Caustic Soda: Trade disputes are causing upstream production cuts, and the spot price is stabilizing, while the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Others - Container Shipping (European Route): Given the strong expectation but weak reality, it is advisable to wait and see when prices are falling. For peak - season contracts, light - position long - entry can be attempted, and a 6 - 8 backwardation trade can be continuously monitored [1].