申银万国期货每日报告-20250416

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic outlook is under pressure due to Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, which has led to downward revisions of economic growth forecasts by OPEC and a decline in global trade demand [1][3]. - The A-share market has withstood the downward pressure from tariffs, and market confidence has been boosted by a series of stabilizing measures. However, future performance depends on policies to boost the domestic economy [2][10]. - Oil prices are expected to decline in the short term due to increased supply and reduced demand, but low prices may provide the US with more room to sanction Venezuela and Iran [3][12]. - The container shipping market on the European route is facing challenges, with a post - poned and limited seasonal peak, and a possible oversupply situation [3][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - International News: The Trump administration is considering closing nearly 30 overseas embassies and consulates to adjust its overseas diplomatic presence [5]. - Domestic News: China's monetary policy is supportive and "moderately loose." The central bank will take action when the economy faces significant shocks [5]. - Industry News: On April 15, the purchase price of coke in Shandong and Ordos markets increased [6]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.17%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.50%, and the US dollar index rose by 0.58%. Other commodities such as gold, silver, and some base metals also showed various price changes [7]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - Financial: - Stock Index: The US three major indices declined slightly. A - share indices were mixed, with the beauty care sector leading the gain and the national defense and military industry sector leading the decline. The market confidence has been boosted, and it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2][9][10]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds declined slightly. The central bank's open - market operation led to a net withdrawal of funds. The US economic and trade situation affects the bond market, and the central bank may adjust monetary policy, which may support short - term bond futures prices but increase the volatility of long - term bond futures prices [11]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Crude Oil: SC futures fell 0.11% at night. OPEC lowered global economic growth forecasts, and oil supply decreased slightly in March. Oil prices are expected to decline in the short term [3][12]. - Methanol: Methanol futures fell 0.17% at night. Coastal inventories increased slightly, and the overall device operating rate rose. It is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - Rubber: Rubber prices adjusted downward. The domestic production area is gradually opening for harvesting, and the Thai production - reduction season is ending. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [14][15]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins declined slightly. The market is affected by tariffs, and attention should be paid to cost, demand, and oil prices [16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures declined. Glass inventory is slowly decreasing, and soda ash has a weak supply - demand situation [17]. - PTA: PTA futures prices are weak due to reduced textile orders and insufficient cost support [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol futures face pressure due to high - level production, rising inventory, and limited downstream demand improvement [19]. - Metals: - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices continued to rise. The trade war has increased market uncertainty, and gold is in a strong upward trend [20]. - Copper: Copper prices fell slightly at night. Uncertainty in US tariff policies and stable domestic demand may lead to wide - range fluctuations in copper prices [22]. - Zinc: Zinc prices fell at night. Uncertain US tariff policies and expected improvement in supply may cause wide - range fluctuations [23]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum futures fell 0.31%. Although the impact of tariffs has eased, supply is still sufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. - Nickel: Shanghai nickel futures rose 0.97%. Uncertainty in nickel ore supply and mixed factors may lead to short - term fluctuations [25]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply has decreased slightly, demand has increased, and inventory has increased. If production is not reduced, lithium prices may fall further [26]. - Black Metals: - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices are weak due to supply expectations, but iron - water production may increase, and demand still has support. It may show a weak trend after a short - term rebound [27][28]. - Steel: Steel is not directly affected by tariffs, but indirect impacts may suppress the market. The future trend depends on production and demand [29]. - Coking Coal: Coking coal futures prices fluctuated. Coke prices increased, and downstream demand may support the valuation of coking coal and coke [30]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloy futures prices declined. Supply reduction and demand recovery may affect the market, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion [31]. - Agricultural Products: - Oils and Fats: Bean and palm oil rose at night, while rapeseed oil was weak. Malaysian palm oil inventory increased, and the report had a neutral impact. Oil prices may boost the oils and fats sector [32]. - Protein Meals: Bean and rapeseed meal futures were weak. US soybean import costs may rise, and far - month bean meal prices may be supported [33][34]. - Shipping Index: - Container Shipping on the European Route: EC futures weakened. The traditional peak season is postponed and limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level [3][35].