房地产行业点评报告：3月销售降幅收窄，二季度市场或延续弱修复趋势

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The sales data for March shows a narrowing decline, indicating a market trend of price-driven volume [5][14] - The new construction area has decreased significantly, impacting confidence in new starts, while completion areas continue to decline year-on-year [6][18] - The decline in real estate development investment has widened due to insufficient sales returns and decreased new starts [7][21] - There is a lack of willingness among residents to leverage, as indicated by the significant drop in personal mortgage loans [24][25] - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery trend in the second quarter, with key cities showing growth in sales data [8][29] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first quarter of 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 219 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% [5][14] - The sales amount for commercial housing was 2.08 trillion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year [5][14] - In March 2025, the sales area and amount showed a year-on-year decline of 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively, indicating a narrowing decline [5][14] Construction and Completion - The new construction area in the first quarter of 2025 was 130 million square meters, down 24.4% year-on-year [6][18] - The completion area was 131 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3% [6][18] Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.9% [7][21] - The total funds available to real estate developers were 2.47 trillion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year [24][26] - Domestic loans, self-raised funds, and personal mortgage loans all showed significant declines, indicating reduced leverage willingness among residents [24][25] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8][29] - Companies benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies include New Town Holdings and Longfor Group [8][29] - The second-hand housing market is expected to grow, with companies like Beike-W and I Love My Home showing promising prospects [8][29]