瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250416

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The ongoing escalation of the Sino - US tariff dispute will stimulate grain - using enterprises to increase the procurement of domestic grain, which is slightly positive for domestic corn prices. The USDA's downward adjustment of the US 2024/25 corn ending inventory estimate is also slightly positive [3]. - In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast production area is less than the same period last year, and the trading volume of traders has slowed down. The supply of high - quality grain in the market has increased due to the expansion of CGSCC's release. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market circulation of corn has increased, but deep - processing enterprises have weak willingness to replenish inventory [3]. - Corn starch enterprises' losses have intensified due to high raw material costs, and the number of maintenance has increased, leading to a decline in the industry's operating rate. The downstream demand for corn starch is poor, and the industry inventory remains high [3]. - Recently, the futures prices of both corn and corn starch have been volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2304 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2672 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - Corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 65 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (7 - 9) is - 68 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1166526 lots, up 48012 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 190280 lots, up 4837 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn is - 165960 lots, down 7403 lots; that of corn starch is - 21796 lots, down 7403 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 18299 lots, up 3704 lots; that of corn starch is 3450 lots, unchanged [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 404 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - The closing price of CBOT corn futures (active contract) is 480.75 cents/bushel, down 3.5 cents; the total position of CBOT corn is 1810136 contracts, down 69856 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 172882 contracts, up 6013 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2267.06 yuan/ton, down 1.37 yuan; the factory quotation of corn starch in Changchun is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The fob price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the factory quotation of corn starch in Weifang is 2760 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2141.75 yuan/ton, up 4.91 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 40 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is - 36.94 yuan/ton, down 3.37 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is - 82 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - The average spot price of wheat is 2427.06 yuan/ton, up 0.67 yuan; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 283 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2]. - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 85 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn output of the US is 377.63 million tons, unchanged; the sown area is 33.55 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - The predicted annual corn output of Brazil is 126 million tons, down 1 million tons; the sown area is 22.3 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - The predicted annual corn output of Argentina is 50 million tons, unchanged; the sown area is 6.4 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - The predicted annual corn output of China is 294.92 million tons, unchanged; the sown area is 44.74 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - The predicted annual corn output of Ukraine is 26.5 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 153.1 million tons, up 5.1 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 588.5 million tons, down 1.9 million tons [2]. - The corn inventory in northern ports is 555 million tons, down 25 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 139.4 million tons, down 0.5 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 34 million tons, up 4 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 9530 tons, up 940 tons [2]. - The planned auction volume of imported corn is 119182 tons, up 42185 tons; the auction transaction rate of imported corn is 98.69%, up 14.36 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 2843.6 million tons, up 6.8 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 131 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of sample feed corn is 35.19 days, up 0.33 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 105 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption is 131.81 million tons, down 3.23 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 46 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 59.17%, up 0.49 percentage points; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 53.94%, down 2.81 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.33%, down 0.21 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.23%, down 0.75 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of corn is 12.44%, down 2.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of corn is 6.08%, down 8.9 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of April 12, 2025, the harvest progress of the first - season corn in the 2024/25 season in Brazil is 65.5%, compared with 59.2% last week, 56.7% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 60.3% [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - The weekly consumption of corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]