Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-16 09:32Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry's supply side has seen some devices undergoing maintenance, leading to a decrease in capacity utilization rate. The demand side shows mixed trends, with PVC pipe production starting rate increasing slightly and profile production starting rate decreasing. PVC social inventory continues to decline. In April, domestic PVC devices are scheduled for centralized maintenance, and capacity utilization is expected to drop further. Affected by tariff shocks, downstream PVC flooring product enterprises have mostly shut down, while pipe and profile enterprises are less affected. Cost - wise, the price of calcium carbide is expected to decline slightly, and the price of ethylene has room to fall. For the V2509 contract, pay attention to the support around 5000 below and the resistance around 5160 above [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5054 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan; trading volume is 368,542 lots, down 145,044 lots; open interest is 706,686 lots, up 258,548 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 759,979 lots, up 274 lots; the short position is 821,940 lots, up 789 lots; the net long position is - 61,961 lots, down 515 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5090 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4866.92 yuan/ton, down 23.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5120 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4953.75 yuan/ton, up 13.75 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton, both with no change. The FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe is 805 US dollars/ton with no change. The basis of PVC is - 111 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2950 yuan/ton with no change, in North China is 2865 yuan/ton with no change, and in Northwest China is 2617 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton with no change. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 541 US dollars/ton, both with no change. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 226 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 221 US dollars/ton, both with no change [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly starting rate of PVC is 76.67%, down 3.35%; the starting rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.22%, down 3.18%; the starting rate of ethylene - based PVC is 69.98%, down 3.79%. The total social inventory of PVC is 45.06 tons, down 0.33 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region is 40.52 tons, down 0.01 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region is 4.54 tons, down 0.32 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The National Housing Climate Index is 93.8, up 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 66140,000 square meters, down 67,278,840 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 605,972,000 square meters, down 127,275,360 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment completed is 611.071 billion yuan, down 496.9943 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 16.5%, down 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 13.64%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of PVC is 20.3%, both down 4.32% [3]. Industry News - On April 16, the spot - cash warehouse - pickup price of PVC SG5 in Changzhou remained stable compared to the previous day. The prices of Yihua, Jintai, Zhongyan, and Ordos are between 4820 - 4870 yuan/ton, and the prices of Zhongtai and Tianye are between 4880 - 4920 yuan/ton. From April 5th to April 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.67%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.35%. As of April 10th, the new (41 - company) sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 3.16% month - on - month to 753,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.55%. The main PVC contract has switched to the 09 contract. V2509 fluctuated weakly and closed at 5054 yuan/ton [3].