瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250416

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, L2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 7000 and resistance around 7370. The production and capacity utilization rate are expected to increase month - on - month due to the restart of some devices. China's counter - tariffs on the US may reduce the domestic PE supply pressure. The demand for mulch film is ending, while the packaging film terminal is stocking up. International oil prices are volatile [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7131 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7066 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7281 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7131 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The trading volume is 287,643 lots, down 7,419 lots; the open interest is 418,757 lots, up 28,998 lots. The spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month contracts is - 215, unchanged. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 355,000 lots, up 7,456 lots; the short position is 428,918 lots, up 16,180 lots; the net long position is - 73,918 lots, down 8,724 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7549.09 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in East China is 7594.63 yuan/ton, down 18.29 yuan. The basis is 358.09, up 68 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 60.64 US dollars/barrel, down 0.21 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 562.75 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars. The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 891 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia is 791 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 83.14%, up 0.68 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 48.07%, up 0.29 percentage points; of PE pipes is 31.67%, up 0.5 percentage points; of PE agricultural film is 37.54%, down 3.04 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 21.65%, up 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.94%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.4%, down 1.83 percentage points; of at - the - money call options is 11.4%, down 1.82 percentage points [2] Industry News - From April 4th to 10th, China's polyethylene production was 624,700 tons, up 0.21% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.14%, up 0.68 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.12%. As of April 9th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 480,600 tons, up 9.63% month - on - month; as of April 11th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 616,000 tons, up 0.46% month - on - month [2]