HUAXI Securities·2025-04-16 10:00Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook on domestic demand recovery, driven by supportive policies and improving real estate data [2][3] - The retail sector shows significant recovery, with March retail sales growth at 5.9%, surpassing expectations [1][6] - The report emphasizes the potential for the home furnishing sector to rebound due to policy support and consumer demand [3][7] Summary by Sections Retail Data - In the first three months of 2025, total retail sales increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with March showing a 5.9% increase, exceeding the consensus forecast of 4.36% [1] - Specific categories such as furniture, cultural office supplies, cosmetics, and gold and silver jewelry saw growth rates of 18.1%, 21.7%, 3.2%, and 6.9% respectively [1] - Online retail sales growth was recorded at 7.9% in the first quarter, indicating a steady increase in online consumption [6] Real Estate Data - National residential new construction area, completion area, sales area, and development investment completed in the first three months of 2025 showed declines of 23.9%, 14.7%, 2.0%, and 9.0% respectively [1] - In March, the new construction area and completion area declined by 18.6% and 8.1% year-on-year, while the sales area decreased by 1.2% [1][2] Policy Impact - The government has released favorable signals to stabilize the real estate market, including measures to optimize housing provident fund policies [2][3] - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" emphasizes support for upgrading consumer goods, which is expected to stimulate demand in the home furnishing sector [3][7] Investment Recommendations - For the home furnishing sector, the report recommends companies like Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and others, anticipating steady growth driven by policy support and consumer demand [7] - In the cultural office supplies sector, it suggests Morning Glory Co., which is expected to benefit from collective procurement policies [7] - The cosmetics sector is highlighted for its potential growth, recommending domestic brands like Runben and Pechoin [7] - Gold and silver jewelry consumption is expected to remain strong, with recommendations for companies like Laopu Gold [7]