地产行业杂谈系列之六十三：行业发展空间仍存，“好房子”市场前景广阔

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][28] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in China has significant development potential, with a focus on promoting the construction of "good houses" to stabilize and improve the market [3][20] - The government is expected to enhance policies regarding the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing, which will help stimulate housing demand and stabilize the market [3][11] - The current sales scale of residential properties is below the mid-term average, indicating strong underlying housing demand [13][20] - The "good house" market has vast potential, with a projected average annual demand for improved housing between 6.1 trillion to 9.9 trillion yuan [17][21] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight recovery in the housing market, with new home sales in 30 cities down only 2% year-on-year, a significant improvement from a 19.4 percentage point decline in 2024 [4][6] - Major cities experienced a 33% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions [4][8] Policy and Market Support - The government plans to allocate 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds to support investment in housing and land acquisition, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the market [11][12] - Emphasis on urban renewal and the transformation of urban villages is expected to further stimulate housing demand [11][12] Housing Demand and Supply - The potential demand for residential properties from 2025 to 2030 is estimated at 8.76 billion square meters, with current sales at 8.1 billion square meters, indicating a shortfall [13][14] - The average annual rigid housing demand is projected at 2.9 billion square meters, while the improvement demand is estimated at 5.9 billion square meters [17][21] Market Trends - The introduction of high-quality housing projects is anticipated to create a price anchor, helping to stabilize the market [22][23] - The proportion of substandard housing remains high, indicating a strong need for improvement and upgrades in the housing stock [20][21]