利通科技：2024年报点评：业绩短期承压下滑，期待API 17K海洋石油跨接软管新品投产-20250416

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure with a decline in revenue and profit, but there is an expectation for improvement with the launch of new products, particularly the API 17K marine oil cross-linked hose [2][4] - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to be 484 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.32% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 107.21 million yuan, down 19.82% year-on-year [2] - The decline in revenue is primarily due to cyclical adjustments in the engineering machinery market and a transition of acid fracturing hoses from high growth to a stable phase [2] Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue for 2023 was 485.40 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.50%, while the projected revenue for 2024 is 483.84 million yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 133.71 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 60.78%, while the projected net profit for 2024 is 107.21 million yuan [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 was 1.05 yuan per share, with a projected EPS of 0.84 yuan for 2024 [1] Business Segment Performance - The hose assembly business remains stable, with revenue of 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.85%, but the gross margin decreased by 8.62 percentage points to 57.05% [3] - The steel wire braided and spiral hoses experienced revenue declines of 7.85% and 9.76% respectively, with gross margins of 29.14% and 42.54% [3] - The fiber-reinforced rubber hoses and mixed rubber maintained good growth, with revenues of 21 million yuan and 19 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 17.53% and 9.8% respectively [3] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has significant advantages in the rubber hose industry, with a focus on high-performance products and expanding into marine oil and gas drilling sectors [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the demand for oil extraction and the replacement of old hoses, with a projected increase in net profit to 210 million yuan by 2027 [4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 138 million yuan and 173 million yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for growth [4]