黑色产业数据每日监测-20250416

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent market's macro sentiment has been restored, and there may be short - term expectations for bottom - support policies. However, the destocking of the five major steel products has slowed down. Currently, the steel market still maintains a weak pattern, with cautious market sentiment and little hope for significant improvement in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Today, the black - series commodity futures continued to be weak. The main contract of coking coal has been switched, and the main contract of coke is expected to be switched tomorrow. The main contract of rebar closed at 3,093 yuan/ton, down 1.06%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,205 yuan/ton, down 1.05%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 708 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the 2509 contracts of coking coal and coke continued to decline sharply [1] Market Analysis - In terms of macro data, the growth rates of China's major financial indicators rebounded in March. At the end of March, the stock of China's social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, reaching a high level in the past year. In the first quarter, RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan. The US has removed smartphones, routers, and some computers and laptops from the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese imports, alleviating market concerns about trade frictions [1] - In terms of the actual demand for finished steel products, the demand in April is in the recovery stage. Last week, the funds in place for construction sites continued to improve, with a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points to 58.5%, the highest since the Spring Festival. Although counter - cyclical adjustment tools such as national bonds cannot completely reverse the negative feedback of the real - estate downturn in the short term, in the first quarter, the net issuance of national bonds exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan, and the issuance of local government bonds exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan. There is still a large amount of local government bonds and national bonds to be issued, and the market still has expectations for domestic policies [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to consider high - level consolidation in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between coking coal and coke [1]