铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250416

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US import prices in March declined more than expected, and the market is worried about inflation after the April reciprocal tariffs. Trump's tariff negotiations are progressing slowly, and the trade - war has led to a rise in gold prices and a fall in US stocks and some commodity prices. Domestically, the policy focuses on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, and the A - share market shows a shrinking - volume shock [2][3]. - Gold prices are strong due to risk - aversion demand and a weakening US dollar index. Copper prices are under pressure due to concerns about a global economic recession. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the near - term range. Alumina prices are in a multi - empty game and tend to stabilize and oscillate. Zinc prices are expected to remain in low - level consolidation. Lead prices will oscillate with limited one - sided drivers. Tin prices will oscillate with reduced capital attention. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weakly oscillating due to weak demand. Lithium carbonate prices will continue to oscillate in the short - term. Nickel prices will oscillate with cost support. Oil prices will continue to oscillate, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of spread convergence. Steel prices will oscillate due to weak supply and demand. Iron ore prices will oscillate with a loose inventory situation. Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate in the short - term and have a bullish medium - to - long - term outlook. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short - term and may weaken in the medium - to - long - term [4][6][8][10][12][13][14][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US import prices in March declined more than expected due to the fall in energy product prices. Trump's tariff negotiations are slow. The EU expects the US not to revoke major tariffs, and Japan is not eager to reach an agreement. The trade - war has led to a rise in gold prices, a fall in US stocks, and a decline in the 10Y US Treasury yield, oil prices, and copper prices. Attention is paid to the US March retail data [2]. - Domestic: The policy focuses on "countering externally by allying and stabilizing growth and expectations internally". The A - share market shows a shrinking - volume shock, and the daily - use chemical and domestic - demand industries lead the rise. Attention is paid to the market trading volume and the first - quarter reports of listed companies, as well as China's first - quarter economic data [3]. Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious - metal futures prices rose slightly. COMEX gold futures rose 0.64% to $3246.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.43% to $32.305 per ounce. Gold prices are supported by risk - aversion demand and a weakening US dollar index. The market expects the Fed to restart rate cuts in June and cut the policy rate by 100 basis points this year. Attention is paid to Fed Chairman Powell's speech [4][5]. Copper - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper main contract 2505 declined under pressure. The high - tariff policy may impact the global economy in the short - term, and the market may shift to a global economic recession expectation. The first - quarter import of unforged copper and copper products in China decreased by 5.2% year - on - year. The copper price rebound may be near the end, and it is expected to enter a weak oscillation in the short - term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 19,670 yuan per ton, up 0.31%. The market is cautious about Trump's tariff policy. The downstream consumption is stable, and the supply is rigid. The aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, but there are concerns about exports and consumption. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the near - term range [8][9]. Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract fell 1.87% to 2786 yuan per ton. The cost side provides support, but the current inventory is high, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The market is in a multi - empty game, and alumina prices have limited upward space in the short - term [10][11]. Zinc - On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc main contract ZN2506 oscillated weakly. The spot market trading is not improved, and the spot premium is decreasing. The zinc ingot import window opens intermittently, and the supply - demand mismatch may be alleviated. Due to unclear tariff prospects and weak market risk preference, zinc prices are expected to remain in low - level consolidation in the short - term [12]. Lead - On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead main contract PB2505 oscillated. The supply of waste batteries is tight, and the profit of recycled lead is in deficit, with some production cuts. However, the lead - acid battery is in the off - season, and the demand is mainly for inventory digestion. Lead prices will oscillate in the short - term with limited one - sided drivers [13]. Tin - On Tuesday, the Shanghai tin main contract SN2505 oscillated. Indonesia's tin exports in March increased by 47.2% month - on - month. The supply of raw materials is less worried with the复产 of the Bisie tin mine in Congo, but the复产 of Wa State is uncertain. The demand is resilient, and tin prices will oscillate with reduced capital attention [14][15]. Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract declined. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is high. The supply side is shrinking, but the demand side is weak, with high inventory in the polysilicon industry and weak demand in the photovoltaic industry. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices oscillated, and the spot price decreased slightly. The market has a long - buying sentiment, but the inventory is still high, and the fundamental improvement has not been realized. Lithium carbonate prices will continue to oscillate in the short - term [18]. Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices oscillated strongly. The cost logic may support nickel prices in the medium - term, but attention should be paid to the price fluctuations caused by profit - taking. Nickel prices will oscillate [19]. Crude Oil - On Tuesday, Shanghai crude oil oscillated. The price difference between Brent and WTI crude oil is out of the normal range. Although there is an over - supply expectation, the decline of US oil is limited. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of spread convergence [20]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The steel mill profits have declined, and the short - process losses have increased, leading to an increase in maintenance willingness. The real - estate demand is weak, and the external demand is under pressure. Steel prices will oscillate due to weak supply and demand [21]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The overseas shipment has increased this week, and the arrival volume has also increased. The growth rate of molten iron production has slowed down. The port inventory has decreased, but the overseas inventory has increased. Iron ore prices will oscillate with a loose inventory situation [22]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the bean meal 05 contract fell 48 to 2910 yuan per ton, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 43 to 2584 yuan per ton. The US soybean crushing in March was lower than expected. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be strong. Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate in the short - term and have a bullish medium - to - long - term outlook [23][24]. Palm Oil - On Tuesday, the palm oil 05 contract fell 28 to 8720 yuan per ton. Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 15 days of April increased. Malaysia will maintain the 10% export tax on crude palm oil in May and lower the reference price. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short - term and may weaken in the medium - to - long - term [25][26].